Re: Super Derby (571 Views)
Date: September 22, 2003 03:32PM
>But your original question shows a basic lack of understanding of what we do here-- we take variable levels of performance as a matter of course, and this one was right about what would have been expected.<
I must have worded it poorly because it was not intended to be critical of you or your work. I do understand what you guys are doing and often agree. In this case I suspected that I already knew your answer but wanted to offer an alternative possibility for discussion. THere are often times I wholeheartedly agree with the interpretation that a horse "bounced" etc.. But there are others times when I am very suspicious of the initial figure because it was earned under optimum conditions (like for TMW in the Travers). In those cases I do not believe a horse "bounces". I believe the variation in figures is related to conditions like pace and the competitive nature of the race rather than a change in form.
In some case I believe it is even possible that the initial figure is wrong. As skilled as you are at making figures (and I would be willing to say that I know no one that is better), even you would have to agree that once in awhile the complexities cause errors in the interpretation of results/variants.
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