Re: Super Derby (689 Views)
Posted by:
asfufh (IP Logged)
Date: September 23, 2003 03:11PM
IMHO, jockeys appear to have a profound impact on how a horse races against the early pace set by the leader(s). A closer who runs 5 lengths off the an "average" early pace does not necessarily run closer to the leader(s) in a slow early paced race or farther back against a fast early pace. I presume this is because the jockey determines to a great extent where the horse is positioned during the race and frequently misjudges the pace in doing so.
If a horse always ran proportionately closer or farther way from the leaders depending on early fractions, then handicapping the races would be greatly simplified as most horses would then run the same final time in each of their races assuming they were in shape and avoided trouble.
I guess what i am trying to say is that i agree with classhandicapper to the extent that something(pace or whatever) not yet reflected in the figs is impacting the final times of many(but not all) races.
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