Was the -3 for TMW in the Travers legit? Perhaps the Travers pace was not really that fast, and is not responsible for a moderate pace collapse. While Peace Rules ran his first 4f in 46.36, Great Notion ran 4f in 43.79, in the King's Bishop, the previous race, after a relatively poor start, albeit at 7f, while only missing a neck to Valid Video. Note the pace effect, as Pretty Wild ran his 7f in the 6th race, in 1:21.50 after a half in 44.83, while Great Notion's final time was a neck behind 1:22.14. TMW ran his final 2f in 26.68, not breakneck speed, for a final raw time of 2:02.14. TMW ran in the 2-3 path throughout. I appreciate that TMW carried 9lbs. more than Great Notion. I dont' know the speed figure for Candy Ride or Mineshaft in their last races, but it would still seem hard to make a case for TMW against either of them, if they were to race together this year (which they won't this year with CR's declaration). Notwithstanding the above, your analysis of TMW vs. Soto was well done. With the award of a fast number at -3, perhaps you are correct to readjust the curve by subtracting the anticipated 5 points. Or is it the medication?