Re: Dynever analysis (611 Views)
Date: October 22, 2003 09:14AM
>1. what price would you need?
2.At what odds do you consider yourself being adequately "compensated"?
3.I'll stick with the TG numbers as they are instead of your "adjusted" figs, thank you.
Geez, Classh go out on a limb just once and either take a stand for or against the horse.<
I haven't made a final odds line yet. I want to see the post positions, how the track is playing, and final news. As of now...
I more or less think make Perfect Drift and MDO the most likely winners at this point. (PD a very very slight favorite). I would probably like PD more if this race wasn't just an afterthought for the trainer.
After that I like TMW, Dynever, and Congaree.
I don't think there's a very huge difference in probability of winning between 1-5 and then there are still other possibilities like Hold that Tiger and Pleasantly Perfect that have a chance too.
That is screaming that you need a price to participate. I wouldn't take less than 4-1 on PD. Maybe 6-1 on MDO. After that I want 10-1 or more on TMW, 15-1 on Dynever.
If you want me to take a stand, I'll say I won't bet Congaree unless the track is clearly playing to speed or unless the price is so crazy high I start twitching. :-)
The only insight into the race I have that isn't shared by everyone else on the planet is that these types of races tend to be very competitive. So with 10F not being Congaree's optimal distance (though it's possible) his stamina will be tested.
Taking stands is not the way I bet. I'll bet anyone if the price is right. I'll bet 2-3 horses in the same race if the price is right and bet none all day if no prices are right.
I have deep pockets and short arms. :-)
Upper Nile,
Please don't ever use any of my adjusted figures instead of TG's. I'm just sharing my thoughts. Maybe there's one thing I say that will make sense to you or something someone will say in response that will help me. :-)
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