I have also looked at the Rags for the proposed Derby horses and have to question your selection of Harlan's Holiday, Jim. Whether or not the TG sheets make him out to be a strong or simply mild contender, it seems odd that in a race that figures to have 18-20 entrants you could possibly think that he is the best play. You made him your top selection, although in your posting earlier today you mention that he's at least a slight possibility for fitting an 0-2-x pattern.

I actually agree with you that he should move forward off his last race, but the question REALLY is (if you like him) whether or not his forward move will make him good enough to win? There are several horses that have run faster recently than Harlan's Holiday has EVER run, and although many of those are likely to bounce there always seems to be 1 or 2 that doesn't (like Charasmatic, who figured to go way backwards after his Lexington win yet continued to move forward).

The only real positives I see with your selection of Harlan's Holiday are that he is definitely consistent (most of his races make him at least an exotics contender) and that with the large field expected, he figures to be around 4-1 as the favorite which isn't a horrible price if you REALLY like him. He can win

Like another poster mentioned, it's a bit early to make a strong selection as post positions and track condition will play a role. Request For Parole probably would be a pitch if it's a wet track (according to Rags), whereas he could be keyed if it's dry. What if Harlan's Holiday draws post 19? Is he still as strong?

I agree completely with you that it's hard to pick a horse in the Derby that you expect to move backwards off his last race. My biggest question is which of the horses comig off their new tops will continue to progress? They're not ALL gonna bounce, are they?