4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (981 Views)
Posted by:
toppled (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2014 06:35PM
There are 3 possible horses in this race with jump ups by at least 6 points over their previous top in their last prep race, including likely steam horse Wicked Strong. So instead of 3.0, I used 4.0, which is a lot closer to the 3 jump ups going back to 1997 where all horses are available to review. In some years there were no big jumps, while some years yielded multiple leaps.
Overall there have been 22 horses that jumped up 4 pts or better in their final prep. 2 won, but one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he was fast before the jump. That is unlike this year's jumpers who were topping over 6 before their last big races. The other was Charismatic in 1999. As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but regressed a point. None of the other 19 hit the board and only 1 other made it to 4th to be in the super. Here are the results year by year, the 1st # is the horse's Derby finish, followed by the points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by the number of points he regressed in the Derby. Overall 20 of 22 regressed, the 4 over 6.00 regressed at least 1.50 points & the worst of the 4, who progressed 7.0 points regressed 21 points. I won't be betting any of these 3 to become the next Charismatic :
2010 (none the last 3 years)
2nd,4.50,1.00
8th,4.50,3.25
10th,4.00,5.50
11th,5.00,8.00
18th,4.25,25.25
2009
4th,6.0,1.50
6th,7.50,1.75
14th,4.75,6.50
2008-Big Brown won
1st,4.50,improved 1.25
11th,4.00,7.50
2005
7th,4.75,9.25
11th,6.75,5.75
19th,7.0,21.00
2004
14th,4.75,7.25
2003
14th,6.00,9.75
2002
14th,4.00,7.00
2001
6th,5.00,4.50
11th,5.75,8.75
1999 Charismatic won
1st,4.50, paired
15th,5.00,6.00
16th,4.00,8.50
1998
11th,5.25,14.00