Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (733 Views)
Posted by:
Michael D. (IP Logged)
Date: April 22, 2014 09:00AM
phil23 Wrote:
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> Hmm...ok, well the one thing that does kind of
> stand out from both mine and Kmart's on DI or CD
> is that it appears the middle group pedigrees are
> a fair bit less likely to run a new top.
>
> So...does that mean that extreme pedigrees one way
> or the other are, for some reason, more likely to
> produce new tops in the Derby. But does that even
> make sense? (If) we buy into the Romans groupings,
> why would extreme sprint orientated pedigrees be
> more likely to run tops than middle ground ones.
with 20 horses running around the little 1m oval, trip is huge. horses with speed have a better chance of getting a good trip. and horses with no speed whatsoever sometimes get better trips than the stalker types, as they're in back away from trouble for part of the race.
pedigree matters, but trip is crucial.