With the numbers out, here's the update. I learned my lesson back in 2005 when I bet Bandini, who went in the gate a washed out mess and finished 19th. So next year, when a horse jumps up around 6.0 points in his final prep and becomes a steam horse, I'll refer to this and toss him with no fear, just as I did with the 3 horses this year. I guess you can keep them in for supers based on Wicked Strong becoming the 2nd one to finish 4th, but that's still only 20% in the top 4. With an 80% chance of not hitting the super, I'll take my chances.

toppled Wrote:

>
> Overall there have been 25 horses that jumped up 4
> pts or better in their final prep. 2 won, but
> one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he
> was fast before the jump. That is unlike this
> year's jumpers who were topping over 6 before
> their last big races. The other was Charismatic in
> 1999. As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but
> regressed a point. None of the other 22 hit the
> board and only 2 other made it to 4th to be in the
> super. Here are the results year by year, the 1st
> # is the horse's Derby finish, followed by the
> points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by
> the number of points he regressed in the Derby.
> Overall 23 of 25 regressed, the eight 6.00 or over
> regressed at least 1.50 points & the worst of the
> 8, who progressed 7.0 points regressed 21 points.
> I won't be betting any horse to become the
> next Charismatic next year either:

2014 ADDED
4th,7.75,2.50
6th,6.00,1.75
8th,6.75,4.25
>
> 2010 (none the last 3 years)
> 2nd,4.50,1.00
> 8th,4.50,3.25
> 10th,4.00,5.50
> 11th,5.00,8.00
> 18th,4.25,25.25
>
> 2009
> 4th,6.0,1.50
> 6th,7.50,1.75
> 14th,4.75,6.50
>
> 2008-Big Brown won
> 1st,4.50,improved 1.25
> 11th,4.00,7.50
>
> 2005
> 7th,4.75,9.25
> 11th,6.75,5.75
> 19th,7.0,21.00
>
> 2004
> 14th,4.75,7.25
>
> 2003
> 14th,6.00,9.75
>
> 2002
> 14th,4.00,7.00
>
> 2001
> 6th,5.00,4.50
> 11th,5.75,8.75
>
> 1999 Charismatic won
> 1st,4.50, paired
> 15th,5.00,6.00
> 16th,4.00,8.50
>
> 1998
> 11th,5.25,14.00