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 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
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Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (1480 Views)
Posted by: covelj70 (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2014 11:10AM

I went back and looked at all of the horses that have run 3 point or more tops in their final derby preps since 2009 (analysis only relevant since they stopped allowing steroids which allowed horses/all ahtletes to recover from big efforts alot quicker)

I was surprised by the results, much better than I thought

25 horses total

7 pair or new tops (28%)
9 off (36%)
9 X (36%)

This is very much in line with the overall distribution percentages for all Derby runners

I believe top/pair total is 30% for all runners so right in line here and there is actually a lower percentage of "X's" for this group than all runners

In other words, running a big new top doesn't mean you are more likely to bounce in the Derby. To the contrary, it actually means you are more likely to run a good race in the Derby (with offs categorized as "good" races)

I believe alot of this has to do with horses getting to run at distances that they are better suited to in the final preps and some of it is attributable to some horses getting better a little bit later than some of the precocious ones

Either way, this makes me more comfortable playing a horse like Wicked Strong who is very fast for this crop (I won't give out actual numbers for those that didnt' order the derby/oaks probable TGs, you should check that out)

I saved this part for the end since we are figures oriented here and not results oriented but since 2009, horses that have run a 3 point or more new top in their final prep race have accounted for

3 out of the 5 winners (Mine that Bird, Animal Kingdom and Orb), 2 second place finishes (Bode and Ice Box) and a 3rd place finish (Dullahan)

In other words, DO NOT THROW OUT HORSES THAT RAN A # POINT OR MORE TOP IN THEIR FINAL PREP BECAUSE YOU EXPECT THEM TO BOUNCE

oh by the way, if we include Big Brown in 2008 (which isn't comparable because of the steroids being legal then), horses that have jumped up in their final prep have accounted for 4 out of the last 6 winners

if you want to throw them out for other reasons (i.e. overraced, training bad, can't get the distance, etc) that's fine but don't throw them out on bounce logic

I sent the spreadsheet to JB, he can decide if he wants to do anything with this for the seminar or not



Subject Written By Posted
Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (1480 Views) covelj70 04/21/2014 11:10AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (936 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 11:16AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (1022 Views) covelj70 04/21/2014 11:22AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (860 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 11:37AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (974 Views) kmart4503 04/21/2014 11:58AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (839 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 12:02PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (1025 Views) kmart4503 04/21/2014 12:20PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (843 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 12:28PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (827 Views) kmart4503 04/21/2014 01:45PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (788 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 01:50PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (740 Views) ajkreider 04/21/2014 12:30PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (955 Views) smalltimer 04/21/2014 01:03PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (970 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 01:11PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (865 Views) ajkreider 04/21/2014 01:45PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (876 Views) phil23 04/21/2014 03:27PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (778 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 03:37PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (667 Views) pres711 04/21/2014 03:46PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (642 Views) phil23 04/21/2014 03:51PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (709 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 03:54PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (792 Views) phil23 04/21/2014 04:20PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (681 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 04:27PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (670 Views) kmart4503 04/21/2014 04:36PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (792 Views) phil23 04/21/2014 04:52PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (697 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 05:00PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (781 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 05:18PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (781 Views) phil23 04/21/2014 05:36PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (856 Views) TGJB 04/21/2014 05:51PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (738 Views) ajkreider 04/21/2014 06:32PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (734 Views) Michael D. 04/22/2014 09:00AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (877 Views) Wrongly 04/21/2014 01:29PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (838 Views) smalltimer 04/21/2014 02:01PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (729 Views) touchgold 04/21/2014 11:17AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (922 Views) covelj70 04/21/2014 11:25AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (949 Views) pres711 04/21/2014 02:42PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (664 Views) louisvilleguy1111 04/21/2014 03:07PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (755 Views) Polamalu43 04/21/2014 11:22AM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (723 Views) pizzalove 04/21/2014 11:48AM
4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (982 Views) toppled 04/21/2014 06:35PM
Re: 4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (759 Views) pizzalove 04/21/2014 07:35PM
Re: 4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (661 Views) toppled 04/22/2014 12:02AM
Re: 4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (698 Views) TGJB 04/22/2014 12:05AM
Re: 4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (691 Views) toppled 04/22/2014 12:12AM
Re: 4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (702 Views) TGJB 04/22/2014 01:05AM
Re: 4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (608 Views) pizzalove 04/22/2014 08:28AM
Update 4.0 or better top race before Derby? 3 @ >/=6 in 2014 (711 Views) toppled 05/06/2014 06:39PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (850 Views) BitPlayer 04/21/2014 08:48PM
Re: Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps (640 Views) baron1970 04/21/2014 09:31PM


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