I went back and looked at all of the horses that have run 3 point or more tops in their final derby preps since 2009 (analysis only relevant since they stopped allowing steroids which allowed horses/all ahtletes to recover from big efforts alot quicker)

I was surprised by the results, much better than I thought

25 horses total

7 pair or new tops (28%)
9 off (36%)
9 X (36%)

This is very much in line with the overall distribution percentages for all Derby runners

I believe top/pair total is 30% for all runners so right in line here and there is actually a lower percentage of "X's" for this group than all runners

In other words, running a big new top doesn't mean you are more likely to bounce in the Derby. To the contrary, it actually means you are more likely to run a good race in the Derby (with offs categorized as "good" races)

I believe alot of this has to do with horses getting to run at distances that they are better suited to in the final preps and some of it is attributable to some horses getting better a little bit later than some of the precocious ones

Either way, this makes me more comfortable playing a horse like Wicked Strong who is very fast for this crop (I won't give out actual numbers for those that didnt' order the derby/oaks probable TGs, you should check that out)

I saved this part for the end since we are figures oriented here and not results oriented but since 2009, horses that have run a 3 point or more new top in their final prep race have accounted for

3 out of the 5 winners (Mine that Bird, Animal Kingdom and Orb), 2 second place finishes (Bode and Ice Box) and a 3rd place finish (Dullahan)

In other words, DO NOT THROW OUT HORSES THAT RAN A # POINT OR MORE TOP IN THEIR FINAL PREP BECAUSE YOU EXPECT THEM TO BOUNCE

oh by the way, if we include Big Brown in 2008 (which isn't comparable because of the steroids being legal then), horses that have jumped up in their final prep have accounted for 4 out of the last 6 winners

if you want to throw them out for other reasons (i.e. overraced, training bad, can't get the distance, etc) that's fine but don't throw them out on bounce logic

I sent the spreadsheet to JB, he can decide if he wants to do anything with this for the seminar or not