Re: Wicked Strong (815 Views)
Posted by:
phil23 (IP Logged)
Date: April 27, 2014 02:11PM
Richie - been thinking the exact same thing as far as the read on WS. A slight two point regression (no blow up due to trainer's on fire and hating gulf) just like IH off his big one. They're even coming from basically the same jump up point.
The real question for me is Intense Holiday. What the hell is this horse going to run?
On the one hand, his THORO pattern is bloody awful. Per the 2012 seminar, and updated for the last 2 years, a horse coming in on a TOP and then a (OFF or X) race is 0% / 15% / 36% / 49%. Which is even worse than the normal bad patterns for derby. Especially as JB said in 2012, for new tops.
BUT...does IH really need to run a new top? If he get's a decent trip, probably not. So 15% to pair. Combine that with the fact that by all accounts he might be the ONLY horse at CD right now who looks like he is going over the surface/acclimating well and maybe he's got a shot at it.
Also...he will have had 5 weeks (not 4 or 3) since his last one and 10 weeks since the big one.
If this was a normal race in NY for a May 3yo, I think, given that TAP's usually run their #'s he'd be massively likely to pair his top. But it's not, it's the Derby WITH Testing...neither a TAP forte.
His action down the Fair Grounds stretch last time (the "bi" where he basically threw himself into the rail) is a huge negative too, and of course he wasn't very fast at 2 so less of a base to support his big one.
Is price the decider? Right now you can get 20's on him generally. Derby Day he'll probably (does seem like he's the most likely workout steam horse....though in such a public pool how much that will be a factor is up in the air) be more like 13's.
I mean if he's really 15% then 13's is a good bet. But adding in the "bi" and I think he's probably closer to just 10% to pair. So 13's would still be an overlay but only just.
For me, this horse is the toughest read of the bunch. Easy to see the big jump ups going back, or the good paired tops patterns pairing again but this guy...???