Order Online |
Complete Menu of
TG Data products |
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data |
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse |
Free Products |
Download and Review previous days' data. |
With detailed comments |
Email notification when your horse races |
Information |
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials |
Consulting services and Graph Racing |
Where to buy TG around the country |
Historical
races and handicapping articles |
Handicapping |
Major handicapping contest winners |
|
|
Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (1057 Views)
Date: September 17, 2003 08:24AM
Over the years it has become very apparent to me that the pace of the race can effect both the final time and the result.
It's clearest at the extremes when the early fractions are so slow that the horses are physically incapable of running the last 2-3 furlongs fast enough to produce their normal final time figures. On occasion, the pace can also be so extremely fast that all the major contenders are impacted and the race collapses.
However, I've seen evidence from studying high caliber horses that smaller variation around "average" can produce other variances - both favorable and unfavorable. It just seems impossible to put it into a formula.
Now to my question.
Recently, the King's Bishop was run on the same day as Pretty Wild's allownance victory. (8/23). The final time of the KB was much slower, the pace was MUCH faster, and I would argue that the horses in that race was Waaaaaay better.
Many speed figure men concluded that the track changed speed later in the day (became slower). They bumped the figure up to a higher level than the allowance race. While that is certainly logical from an ability standpoint, I'm not so sure it reflects reality. IMHO, the pace of the KB may have impacted the final time. The very fact that the fractions were so extremely fast indicates that the track, in fact, had not slowed down.
I see MANY examples of this and IMO when players try to combine trips with these sorts of adjusted figures they wind up double counting or undercounting the impact.
Any thoughts?
Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (1057 Views) |
|
09/17/2003 08:24AM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (599 Views)
|
jbelfior |
09/17/2003 10:53AM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (597 Views)
|
|
09/17/2003 02:27PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (583 Views)
|
TGJB |
09/17/2003 01:37PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (613 Views)
|
|
09/17/2003 02:52PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (693 Views)
|
jbelfior |
09/17/2003 04:56PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (612 Views)
|
derby1592 |
09/17/2003 07:54PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (654 Views)
|
|
09/18/2003 07:24PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (567 Views)
|
|
09/17/2003 02:57PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (661 Views)
|
TGJB |
09/17/2003 03:04PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (616 Views)
|
|
09/17/2003 03:14PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (698 Views)
|
|
09/17/2003 03:08PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (626 Views)
|
TGJB |
09/17/2003 03:21PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (568 Views)
|
|
09/17/2003 03:48PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (683 Views)
|
JimP |
09/17/2003 04:23PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (603 Views)
|
texasturfmaster |
09/19/2003 05:33PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (620 Views)
|
TGJB |
09/19/2003 06:19PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (566 Views)
|
fasteddie |
09/18/2003 10:02AM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (581 Views)
|
|
09/18/2003 07:26PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (634 Views)
|
TGJB |
09/19/2003 12:36PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (608 Views)
|
|
09/19/2003 03:42PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (577 Views)
|
|
09/17/2003 02:37PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (638 Views)
|
beyerguy |
10/08/2003 06:21PM |
Beyerexpert (670 Views)
|
|
10/08/2003 07:32PM |
Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
|