Over the years it has become very apparent to me that the pace of the race can effect both the final time and the result.

It's clearest at the extremes when the early fractions are so slow that the horses are physically incapable of running the last 2-3 furlongs fast enough to produce their normal final time figures. On occasion, the pace can also be so extremely fast that all the major contenders are impacted and the race collapses.

However, I've seen evidence from studying high caliber horses that smaller variation around "average" can produce other variances - both favorable and unfavorable. It just seems impossible to put it into a formula.

Now to my question.

Recently, the King's Bishop was run on the same day as Pretty Wild's allownance victory. (8/23). The final time of the KB was much slower, the pace was MUCH faster, and I would argue that the horses in that race was Waaaaaay better.

Many speed figure men concluded that the track changed speed later in the day (became slower). They bumped the figure up to a higher level than the allowance race. While that is certainly logical from an ability standpoint, I'm not so sure it reflects reality. IMHO, the pace of the KB may have impacted the final time. The very fact that the fractions were so extremely fast indicates that the track, in fact, had not slowed down.

I see MANY examples of this and IMO when players try to combine trips with these sorts of adjusted figures they wind up double counting or undercounting the impact.

Any thoughts?