For what it is worth, I agree with 2 of the points that I think you were trying to make:

1) That many sheets players tend to read a poor final fig as an "X" when actually it may have been a big effort as part of a hot pace.

2) That you have to be careful about playing front runners to run back to big figs earned with soft fractions; particularly, if the fig is isolated and the horse is likely to encounter faster fractions in the race you are handicapping.

However, I am not sure either was the case with Pretty Wild. He looked like a good "classic sheet bounce" candidate independent of pace considerations. Who knows which came into play last weekend - maybe a combination of both. I guess the main takeaway is that a horse that looks likely to bounce on the sheets and also looks weak from a pace standpoint is a great play against.

Unfortunately, none of this helped me much in this case as Tafaseel's failure to get past During in the stretch drive cost me a pretty nice score in the pick-4 (although I know of at least one other regular on this board who was very pleased by During's victory - and my loss was his gain).

The question I have for you is why would someone so interested in pace use the tag "classhandicapper?"

Cheers.

Chris



Post Edited (09-18-03 11:02)