Thank you for that thoughtful post about pace, speed figures, separate track variants etc... I am happy someone understands and commented on the issues I am bringing up.

It's quite a problem unless you pay close attention because you want to make sure you don't double count certain aspects of trip that the figure maker might have included in his variant.

I have often seen situations where a figure maker made a separate variant for a race because they thought the track was slower for that race, when in fact the race was slower because of the pace and not the track speed.

They stumble into the right figure for the wrong reason for some horses and a totally wrong figure for other horses in the same race by adjusting it. (just as in your example)

Personally, I think ALL aspects of trip should be left out of the figure and variant process. That includes the impact of extreme paces and paths.

It doesn't matter what you think about bias or the impact of being wide etc.... I would prefer to simply have that information separately and quantify the impact separately based on my own study of those issues.

The obvious case is when a horse is 3-4 wide on both turns and another on the rail all the way and they finish close. On a neutral track that means one thing. On a dead rail that means something else. On a golden rail that means something else. Bias is super tough to determine, but it is simply obvious that some tracks do not play the same every day. It's easy to observe the extremes even if it's difficult to take it to the level suggested by some authors and players. So I defintely pay attention to the extremes. Otherwise the figures are completely worthless for those days. Without that knowledge you'll wind up making up all sorts of dumb reasons for the variance of some horses' form.

Another less obvious example is WHEN a horse is wide and how hard he is being used at that time.

It is pretty clear to me that if you are a closer that is 3-4 wide first turn in the middle/back of the pack and the pace is moderate, that is having MUCH LESS of a negative impact than a front runner that is 3-4 wide first turn into a hot pace. The latter is dead meat and the former is not doing much that will take any starch out of his kick later.

I could go on, but at least we are on the same wavelength.