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Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (635 Views)
Posted by: beyerguy (IP Logged)
Date: October 08, 2003 06:21PM
classhandicapper...
I like to consider myself somewhat of an expert on the Beyer's. I check all the Beyer's in each edition of Simulcast Weekly. I see the "adjusted" Beyers you speak of all the time. It isn't always a split variant either. It is sometimes just one race in the middle of a group of others, not at the beginning or end of the card. I agree the figure should be left as is, ala During should have gotten a 92. Although the figures might represent a more accurate picture of the horses who were up close to the pace, they greatly distort the closers numbers.
Example, horse A runs :43 1:10 while hanging on to win by a nostril. Horse B comes from the clouds to just miss. Applying the same variant that other races were assigned would give Horse A a figure of 90. The problem is, Horse A always runs in the low 100s. So the Beyer guys will arbitrarily bump the race to 100 or so. Probably a true reflection of Horse As ability on a Beyer scale. The problem is Horse B, who should have gotten a 90 Beyer as well, is now showing a 100 also.
For the record, they do the same thing in reverse as well. A filly named Mossflower was given a 101 for an allowance score at Belmont a few years ago when the variant given to all the other races would have given her a 114 or so. She was entered in a G1 Stakes race next out, and paid $11 due to that 101 Beyer in the PPs.
I don't mind these things, and actually track them and have been known to make a nice score from them.
I guess the point of all this is it really helps to understand the process of how the figures you use are made. Not just the overall process, but each figure on its own merits.
Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (1055 Views)
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09/17/2003 08:24AM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (596 Views)
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jbelfior |
09/17/2003 10:53AM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (597 Views)
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09/17/2003 02:27PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (582 Views)
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TGJB |
09/17/2003 01:37PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (612 Views)
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09/17/2003 02:52PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (689 Views)
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jbelfior |
09/17/2003 04:56PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (611 Views)
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derby1592 |
09/17/2003 07:54PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (650 Views)
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09/18/2003 07:24PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (563 Views)
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09/17/2003 02:57PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (657 Views)
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TGJB |
09/17/2003 03:04PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (616 Views)
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09/17/2003 03:14PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (690 Views)
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09/17/2003 03:08PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (622 Views)
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TGJB |
09/17/2003 03:21PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (565 Views)
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09/17/2003 03:48PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (682 Views)
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JimP |
09/17/2003 04:23PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (599 Views)
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texasturfmaster |
09/19/2003 05:33PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (617 Views)
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TGJB |
09/19/2003 06:19PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (561 Views)
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fasteddie |
09/18/2003 10:02AM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (579 Views)
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09/18/2003 07:26PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (631 Views)
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TGJB |
09/19/2003 12:36PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (606 Views)
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09/19/2003 03:42PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (576 Views)
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09/17/2003 02:37PM |
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (635 Views) |
beyerguy |
10/08/2003 06:21PM |
Beyerexpert (667 Views)
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10/08/2003 07:32PM |
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