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 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
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Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (635 Views)
Posted by: beyerguy (IP Logged)
Date: October 08, 2003 06:21PM

classhandicapper...

I like to consider myself somewhat of an expert on the Beyer's. I check all the Beyer's in each edition of Simulcast Weekly. I see the "adjusted" Beyers you speak of all the time. It isn't always a split variant either. It is sometimes just one race in the middle of a group of others, not at the beginning or end of the card. I agree the figure should be left as is, ala During should have gotten a 92. Although the figures might represent a more accurate picture of the horses who were up close to the pace, they greatly distort the closers numbers.

Example, horse A runs :43 1:10 while hanging on to win by a nostril. Horse B comes from the clouds to just miss. Applying the same variant that other races were assigned would give Horse A a figure of 90. The problem is, Horse A always runs in the low 100s. So the Beyer guys will arbitrarily bump the race to 100 or so. Probably a true reflection of Horse As ability on a Beyer scale. The problem is Horse B, who should have gotten a 90 Beyer as well, is now showing a 100 also.

For the record, they do the same thing in reverse as well. A filly named Mossflower was given a 101 for an allowance score at Belmont a few years ago when the variant given to all the other races would have given her a 114 or so. She was entered in a G1 Stakes race next out, and paid $11 due to that 101 Beyer in the PPs.

I don't mind these things, and actually track them and have been known to make a nice score from them.

I guess the point of all this is it really helps to understand the process of how the figures you use are made. Not just the overall process, but each figure on its own merits.



Subject Written By Posted
Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (1055 Views) 09/17/2003 08:24AM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (596 Views) jbelfior 09/17/2003 10:53AM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (597 Views) 09/17/2003 02:27PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (582 Views) TGJB 09/17/2003 01:37PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (612 Views) 09/17/2003 02:52PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (689 Views) jbelfior 09/17/2003 04:56PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (611 Views) derby1592 09/17/2003 07:54PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (650 Views) 09/18/2003 07:24PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (563 Views) 09/17/2003 02:57PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (657 Views) TGJB 09/17/2003 03:04PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (616 Views) 09/17/2003 03:14PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (690 Views) 09/17/2003 03:08PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (622 Views) TGJB 09/17/2003 03:21PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (565 Views) 09/17/2003 03:48PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (682 Views) JimP 09/17/2003 04:23PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (599 Views) texasturfmaster 09/19/2003 05:33PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (617 Views) TGJB 09/19/2003 06:19PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (561 Views) fasteddie 09/18/2003 10:02AM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (579 Views) 09/18/2003 07:26PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (631 Views) TGJB 09/19/2003 12:36PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (606 Views) 09/19/2003 03:42PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (576 Views) 09/17/2003 02:37PM
Re: Pace, Final Time, Kings Bishop (635 Views) beyerguy 10/08/2003 06:21PM
Beyerexpert (667 Views) 10/08/2003 07:32PM


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