1-- Not to be too harsh about it, but "it is apparent" that sometimes fast paced races have slow final times and sometimes slow paced races have slow final times,so the slow times must have been produced by the pace? Certainly extreme slow paces can affect final time for the reason you mentioned, and an EXTREME hot pace can as well (see the recent match race at Del Mar), which is one reason I sometimes have to disregard final time when making a figure. We mark those races with "pace" designations.

2-- Logic would indicate that a hot pace would only affect those running the fast fractions, not the ones behind them. Final time for most of the field should not be affected.

3-- Who were the "many" figure makers who concluded the track changed speed dramatically between those two races Travers day? Beyer did, I did not-- I used a 1 point different variant, which is a very minor change in keeping with what happens virtually every day at every track. In fact, 5 of the 6 sprints on that day fell into a very tight spread, which is unusual because of the wind (4, below). Pretty Wild ran out of his mind, and bounced the next time. Several solid horses in the KB (Eye of the Tiger etc.) ran to the numbers they had going in, and off the top of my head at least one (Frankel's horse) ran a new top. The ones near the hot pace did not run their best figures despite running 1-2, and that is something some handicappers may take into account, and some may not.

4-- There was a significant wind during the races, ranging from 10 to 20 mph, mostly at 10 o'clock (imagine you are looking down at the face of a clock, with 12 across from the grandstand). The effect of wind is geometric, so the effect of a 20 mph wind is 4 times that of 10 (10x10=100, 20x20=400), and the wind was behind them in that long run down the backside at 7f, producing the potential for some fast early fractions, and into their faces through the stretch.

This wind stuff is something we haven't discussed enough here. Since the effect is geometric and since the speed and direction are estimated before and after the race (the observer is watching the running of the race), the data we and Ragozin use can be off a little, so at significant wind speeds the margin of error can get pretty high. Especially since there is a very large structure (grandstand) bouncing the wind currents around. And there is an even greater margin for error for those that don't use wind, either for final or (especially) pace figures, or for those (Ragozin)that take the data they get as ironclad fact, and create hard and fast rules limiting the amount of discretion that figure makers have in deciding variants. Ultimately, the only realistic way to make figures is by using the figure histories of the horses.



TGJB