Re: ROTW (655 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: March 30, 2019 01:03AM
richiebee it's nice to see your wit is embellishing the board this week.
I can not consider this race without first considering history. But first things first which would be the UAE derby and the unveiling of my annual 2019 Kentucky Derby's sushi-son. This year that would be Derma Louvre which sounds a little like an engine additive when voiced after a dose of wasabi. He doesn't have the "bizarreness" of Lani (yet) or the brilliance of Mendelssohn but with some Japanese KD points and some Dubain points to go with the owners intent one we'll see in KY.
The FL Derby (ROTW) tradition is not unlike the Masters. FL winners who have won the roses include: Spectacular Bid, Swale, Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Monarchos, Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming. With some exceptions the winners have been front runners.
Add in a few names that won in FL but not KY like Empire Maker, Scat Daddy, Quality Road and Take Charge Indy and you have many of the top sires in recent history. So the 2019 winner of the FL Derby is very likely to become a celebrity. I contend the horse almost certainly will be the property of iconic industry trainer and owner.
Let us not forget that Mr. GQ Todd Pletcher has won won four of the last five running of this Hallandale classic. So a cursory cull gives us #1 Hidden Scroll a double qualifier with Mott & Juddmont Farms, ditto #2 Current TAP & senor LaPenta, #7 Maximum Seurity is kind of a nouveau riche qualifier being by New Years Day, the West's & Jason Servis like TGJB mentioned this one is worrisome but
with the wrong running style (imo) needs help. #9 Code of Honor (Farish McG III about as industry insiders as you can be)
In summary we have three contenders #1 Hidden Scroll, #9 Code of Honor & #2 Current:
1. Hidden Scroll reminds me somewhat of Materialism I think he's a bit of a surprise to his connections to be in this position. He's brilliant but doesn't fit the profile of a Classic Winner. But I like him better than Always Dreaming.
2. Current s/b twice his morning line of 15/1. But in TAP we trust? The colt has only run on the dirt once and that was forgetable in the KY Jockey Club. Connections have put in a lot of effort trying to develop a Turf star - not. Virtually every objective measure says this one should not be in this race. Yet works indicate they are trying to teach the horse to run the first half mile rather than walk. Intuitive play
3. Code of Honor that this one has not improved on his 2 y/o top is of no concern to me. My opinion is the connections are being patient. Galileo as the Grand Sire is curious and stamps him as Classic distance capable. For me, he's not bettable at his 3/1 morning line. As the TG analysis points out he's likely to lose ground and imho on both turns so that's -(2-3) TG pts. meaning even a new top probably doesn't win.
What I'm really curious about is Palm Beach Downs or Payson Park considered the slow & heavy workout facility because if its PBD I'll feel less the idiot for betting Current to show.
From a sheets reader perspective the bet has to be #11 Garter & Tie the colt is durable has been running TG 5's most of his two y/o campaign and is poised to run a new top as a bigger stronger faster 3 y/o. For those who like to review video replays they already know this was a live horse in the Holy Bull. The jockey was out ridden by Hernandez on winner Harvey Wallbanger. A tough trip (bad post & tactics) and the horse running the fastest at the end of the race. Good timing into Sat's feature.