Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2019 Belmont Stakes Day TG Figures Belmont Park -- June 8, 2019 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: ROTW (433 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: March 30, 2019 01:03AM

richiebee it's nice to see your wit is embellishing the board this week.

I can not consider this race without first considering history. But first things first which would be the UAE derby and the unveiling of my annual 2019 Kentucky Derby's sushi-son. This year that would be Derma Louvre which sounds a little like an engine additive when voiced after a dose of wasabi. He doesn't have the "bizarreness" of Lani (yet) or the brilliance of Mendelssohn but with some Japanese KD points and some Dubain points to go with the owners intent one we'll see in KY.

The FL Derby (ROTW) tradition is not unlike the Masters. FL winners who have won the roses include: Spectacular Bid, Swale, Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Monarchos, Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming. With some exceptions the winners have been front runners.

Add in a few names that won in FL but not KY like Empire Maker, Scat Daddy, Quality Road and Take Charge Indy and you have many of the top sires in recent history. So the 2019 winner of the FL Derby is very likely to become a celebrity. I contend the horse almost certainly will be the property of iconic industry trainer and owner.

Let us not forget that Mr. GQ Todd Pletcher has won won four of the last five running of this Hallandale classic. So a cursory cull gives us #1 Hidden Scroll a double qualifier with Mott & Juddmont Farms, ditto #2 Current TAP & senor LaPenta, #7 Maximum Seurity is kind of a nouveau riche qualifier being by New Years Day, the West's & Jason Servis like TGJB mentioned this one is worrisome but with the wrong running style (imo) needs help. #9 Code of Honor (Farish McG III about as industry insiders as you can be)

In summary we have three contenders #1 Hidden Scroll, #9 Code of Honor & #2 Current:

1. Hidden Scroll reminds me somewhat of Materialism I think he's a bit of a surprise to his connections to be in this position. He's brilliant but doesn't fit the profile of a Classic Winner. But I like him better than Always Dreaming.

2. Current s/b twice his morning line of 15/1. But in TAP we trust? The colt has only run on the dirt once and that was forgetable in the KY Jockey Club. Connections have put in a lot of effort trying to develop a Turf star - not. Virtually every objective measure says this one should not be in this race. Yet works indicate they are trying to teach the horse to run the first half mile rather than walk. Intuitive play

3. Code of Honor that this one has not improved on his 2 y/o top is of no concern to me. My opinion is the connections are being patient. Galileo as the Grand Sire is curious and stamps him as Classic distance capable. For me, he's not bettable at his 3/1 morning line. As the TG analysis points out he's likely to lose ground and imho on both turns so that's -(2-3) TG pts. meaning even a new top probably doesn't win.

What I'm really curious about is Palm Beach Downs or Payson Park considered the slow & heavy workout facility because if its PBD I'll feel less the idiot for betting Current to show.

From a sheets reader perspective the bet has to be #11 Garter & Tie the colt is durable has been running TG 5's most of his two y/o campaign and is poised to run a new top as a bigger stronger faster 3 y/o. For those who like to review video replays they already know this was a live horse in the Holy Bull. The jockey was out ridden by Hernandez on winner Harvey Wallbanger. A tough trip (bad post & tactics) and the horse running the fastest at the end of the race. Good timing into Sat's feature.



Subject Written By Posted
ROTW (2278 Views) Mstrlucky74 03/29/2019 06:19PM
Re: ROTW (671 Views) TGJB 03/29/2019 07:00PM
Re: ROTW (593 Views) johnnym 03/29/2019 08:29PM
Re: Hidden Scroll (461 Views) BitPlayer 03/30/2019 01:45PM
Re: ROTW (422 Views) bobphilo 03/30/2019 04:14PM
Re: ROTW (374 Views) johnnym 03/31/2019 09:05AM
Re: ROTW (379 Views) ajkreider 03/31/2019 09:32AM
Re: Maximum Security (590 Views) BitPlayer 03/31/2019 12:19PM
Re: Maximum Security (473 Views) johnnym 03/31/2019 12:23PM
Re: Maximum Security (384 Views) ajkreider 04/02/2019 06:15PM
Re: Maximum Security (537 Views) Mathcapper 03/31/2019 01:44PM
Re: ROTW (501 Views) dannyboy135 03/29/2019 08:59PM
Re: ROTW (517 Views) richiebee 03/29/2019 09:57PM
Re: ROTW (452 Views) albatross 03/29/2019 10:58PM
Re: ROTW (436 Views) richiebee 03/29/2019 11:40PM
Re: ROTW (418 Views) Mstrlucky74 03/30/2019 06:42PM
Re: ROTW (373 Views) richiebee 03/31/2019 11:38AM
Re: ROTW (433 Views) Tavasco 03/30/2019 01:03AM
Re: ROTW (346 Views) johnnym 03/30/2019 08:05AM
Re: ROTW (344 Views) Tavasco 03/30/2019 08:50AM
Re: ROTW (357 Views) boardedup 03/30/2019 03:42PM
Re: ROTW FL Derby Right Wrong & Why? (416 Views) Tavasco 04/04/2019 05:20AM
Re: ROTW (462 Views) dodie 03/30/2019 08:36AM
Re: ROTW (558 Views) TGJB 03/30/2019 09:20AM
Re: ROTW (445 Views) dodie 03/30/2019 09:22AM
Re: ROTW (537 Views) JohnTChance 03/30/2019 07:48PM
Re: ROTW (506 Views) TGJB 03/30/2019 09:20PM
Re: ROTW (432 Views) bluechip21 03/30/2019 10:08PM
Re: ROTW (425 Views) rezlegal 03/30/2019 10:29PM
Re: ROTW (423 Views) bluechip21 03/30/2019 11:04PM
Re: ROTW (424 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 01:19AM
Re: ROTW (427 Views) johnnym 03/30/2019 09:59PM
Re: ROTW (454 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 12:31AM
Re: ROTW (447 Views) hellersorr 03/31/2019 01:00AM
Re: ROTW (440 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 01:23AM
Holy Crap! (482 Views) Ace 04/01/2019 10:08PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.