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 Race of the Week:  Kentucky Oaks and Derby Cards - Final Figures Churchill Downs, 4-5 September 2020 
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Re: ROTW (607 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: March 30, 2019 01:03AM

richiebee it's nice to see your wit is embellishing the board this week.

I can not consider this race without first considering history. But first things first which would be the UAE derby and the unveiling of my annual 2019 Kentucky Derby's sushi-son. This year that would be Derma Louvre which sounds a little like an engine additive when voiced after a dose of wasabi. He doesn't have the "bizarreness" of Lani (yet) or the brilliance of Mendelssohn but with some Japanese KD points and some Dubain points to go with the owners intent one we'll see in KY.

The FL Derby (ROTW) tradition is not unlike the Masters. FL winners who have won the roses include: Spectacular Bid, Swale, Unbridled, Thunder Gulch, Monarchos, Barbaro, Big Brown, Orb, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming. With some exceptions the winners have been front runners.

Add in a few names that won in FL but not KY like Empire Maker, Scat Daddy, Quality Road and Take Charge Indy and you have many of the top sires in recent history. So the 2019 winner of the FL Derby is very likely to become a celebrity. I contend the horse almost certainly will be the property of iconic industry trainer and owner.

Let us not forget that Mr. GQ Todd Pletcher has won won four of the last five running of this Hallandale classic. So a cursory cull gives us #1 Hidden Scroll a double qualifier with Mott & Juddmont Farms, ditto #2 Current TAP & senor LaPenta, #7 Maximum Seurity is kind of a nouveau riche qualifier being by New Years Day, the West's & Jason Servis like TGJB mentioned this one is worrisome but with the wrong running style (imo) needs help. #9 Code of Honor (Farish McG III about as industry insiders as you can be)

In summary we have three contenders #1 Hidden Scroll, #9 Code of Honor & #2 Current:

1. Hidden Scroll reminds me somewhat of Materialism I think he's a bit of a surprise to his connections to be in this position. He's brilliant but doesn't fit the profile of a Classic Winner. But I like him better than Always Dreaming.

2. Current s/b twice his morning line of 15/1. But in TAP we trust? The colt has only run on the dirt once and that was forgetable in the KY Jockey Club. Connections have put in a lot of effort trying to develop a Turf star - not. Virtually every objective measure says this one should not be in this race. Yet works indicate they are trying to teach the horse to run the first half mile rather than walk. Intuitive play

3. Code of Honor that this one has not improved on his 2 y/o top is of no concern to me. My opinion is the connections are being patient. Galileo as the Grand Sire is curious and stamps him as Classic distance capable. For me, he's not bettable at his 3/1 morning line. As the TG analysis points out he's likely to lose ground and imho on both turns so that's -(2-3) TG pts. meaning even a new top probably doesn't win.

What I'm really curious about is Palm Beach Downs or Payson Park considered the slow & heavy workout facility because if its PBD I'll feel less the idiot for betting Current to show.

From a sheets reader perspective the bet has to be #11 Garter & Tie the colt is durable has been running TG 5's most of his two y/o campaign and is poised to run a new top as a bigger stronger faster 3 y/o. For those who like to review video replays they already know this was a live horse in the Holy Bull. The jockey was out ridden by Hernandez on winner Harvey Wallbanger. A tough trip (bad post & tactics) and the horse running the fastest at the end of the race. Good timing into Sat's feature.

Subject Written By Posted
ROTW (2523 Views) Mstrlucky74 03/29/2019 06:19PM
Re: ROTW (843 Views) TGJB 03/29/2019 07:00PM
Re: ROTW (793 Views) johnnym 03/29/2019 08:29PM
Re: Hidden Scroll (645 Views) BitPlayer 03/30/2019 01:45PM
Re: ROTW (656 Views) bobphilo 03/30/2019 04:14PM
Re: ROTW (566 Views) johnnym 03/31/2019 09:05AM
Re: ROTW (534 Views) ajkreider 03/31/2019 09:32AM
Re: Maximum Security (765 Views) BitPlayer 03/31/2019 12:19PM
Re: Maximum Security (668 Views) johnnym 03/31/2019 12:23PM
Re: Maximum Security (622 Views) ajkreider 04/02/2019 06:15PM
Re: Maximum Security (726 Views) Mathcapper 03/31/2019 01:44PM
Re: ROTW (697 Views) dannyboy135 03/29/2019 08:59PM
Re: ROTW (708 Views) richiebee 03/29/2019 09:57PM
Re: ROTW (648 Views) albatross 03/29/2019 10:58PM
Re: ROTW (600 Views) richiebee 03/29/2019 11:40PM
Re: ROTW (614 Views) Mstrlucky74 03/30/2019 06:42PM
Re: ROTW (592 Views) richiebee 03/31/2019 11:38AM
Re: ROTW (607 Views) Tavasco 03/30/2019 01:03AM
Re: ROTW (533 Views) johnnym 03/30/2019 08:05AM
Re: ROTW (541 Views) Tavasco 03/30/2019 08:50AM
Re: ROTW (536 Views) boardedup 03/30/2019 03:42PM
Re: ROTW FL Derby Right Wrong & Why? (626 Views) Tavasco 04/04/2019 05:20AM
Re: ROTW (634 Views) dodie 03/30/2019 08:36AM
Re: ROTW (752 Views) TGJB 03/30/2019 09:20AM
Re: ROTW (624 Views) dodie 03/30/2019 09:22AM
Re: ROTW (707 Views) JohnTChance 03/30/2019 07:48PM
Re: ROTW (693 Views) TGJB 03/30/2019 09:20PM
Re: ROTW (627 Views) bluechip21 03/30/2019 10:08PM
Re: ROTW (611 Views) rezlegal 03/30/2019 10:29PM
Re: ROTW (628 Views) bluechip21 03/30/2019 11:04PM
Re: ROTW (598 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 01:19AM
Re: ROTW (662 Views) johnnym 03/30/2019 09:59PM
Re: ROTW (621 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 12:31AM
Re: ROTW (612 Views) hellersorr 03/31/2019 01:00AM
Re: ROTW (604 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 01:23AM
Holy Crap! (672 Views) Ace 04/01/2019 10:08PM

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