Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2019 Belmont Stakes Day TG Figures Belmont Park -- June 8, 2019 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Maximum Security (536 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: March 31, 2019 01:44PM

BitPlayer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think that puts him in the lead in two-turn
> Beyer clubhouse. While the figure may be right,
> there are certainly questions about how predictive
> it will prove. Gulfstream seemed to be
> speed-friendly yesterday, and Maximum Security was
> allowed to set relatively slow fractions.
>
> How late did Maximum Security get bet? I had him
> at 7-1 off the doubles, and he was about that in
> the early betting.

It came in right at the last minute. He was 6-1 just as the horses were about to enter the gate, then dropped to 9/2 in the next flash.

The drop was interesting from several aspects:

(1) It was a significant drop, especially considering the size of the win pool (you don’t often see moves like that in big events like this).
(2) Every other horse in the field drifted higher in the last flash with the exception of Union’s Destiny, a longshot whose odds dropped modestly (42-1 to 36-1, basically just noise).
(3) He dropped well below his 7-1 Will Pays odds at the last minute rather than drifting slightly upwards towards those implied odds as would have been expected.

Agree on the question of how much to read into his performance going forward.

To my mind, this was another race that hinged on how the pace played out. The question going in was whether it was going to be a hot pace, with Hidden Scroll and the stretching sprinters -- Max Security and the two cheaper ones (Hard Belle, Bodexpress) -- all vying for the lead.

This was an especially intriguing question considering the scuttlebutt around Hidden Scroll and whether they were working to try to get him to rate, most likely because of what happened in the FOY, even though he was clearly the main speed in this race, breaking from the rail, and with three stone-cold closers (Current, Wallbanger, Bourbon War) to his immediate outside.

The entire complexion of the race changed when Hidden Scroll did in fact end up rating. And when the two longshot stretching sprinters weren’t hell-bent on the lead either, that left Max Security on the lead at a comfortable pace. #serviswithasmile

Once the half went up in 48.98 (and the quarter in 24.42), the race was all but over. The deepest closers (ie. Bourbon War) were the most compromised - there was no way they were going to be able to close into that kind of leisurely pace and make up ground on a frontrunner like Max Security who has a faster turn-of-foot and plenty left in the tank.

Hidden Scroll’s performance is tougher to gage going forward. Perhaps he fell victim to what seems to happen to so many horses when you take them out of their game and try to change their natural running style. Or maybe that -2(neg) debut in the slop was too taxing. Or maybe he just freaked in the slop that day (as many horses sometimes do, often inexplicably), and he really isn’t as good as that promising debut effort suggested.



Subject Written By Posted
ROTW (2277 Views) Mstrlucky74 03/29/2019 06:19PM
Re: ROTW (671 Views) TGJB 03/29/2019 07:00PM
Re: ROTW (593 Views) johnnym 03/29/2019 08:29PM
Re: Hidden Scroll (460 Views) BitPlayer 03/30/2019 01:45PM
Re: ROTW (422 Views) bobphilo 03/30/2019 04:14PM
Re: ROTW (374 Views) johnnym 03/31/2019 09:05AM
Re: ROTW (378 Views) ajkreider 03/31/2019 09:32AM
Re: Maximum Security (590 Views) BitPlayer 03/31/2019 12:19PM
Re: Maximum Security (473 Views) johnnym 03/31/2019 12:23PM
Re: Maximum Security (384 Views) ajkreider 04/02/2019 06:15PM
Re: Maximum Security (536 Views) Mathcapper 03/31/2019 01:44PM
Re: ROTW (501 Views) dannyboy135 03/29/2019 08:59PM
Re: ROTW (517 Views) richiebee 03/29/2019 09:57PM
Re: ROTW (452 Views) albatross 03/29/2019 10:58PM
Re: ROTW (435 Views) richiebee 03/29/2019 11:40PM
Re: ROTW (417 Views) Mstrlucky74 03/30/2019 06:42PM
Re: ROTW (372 Views) richiebee 03/31/2019 11:38AM
Re: ROTW (433 Views) Tavasco 03/30/2019 01:03AM
Re: ROTW (346 Views) johnnym 03/30/2019 08:05AM
Re: ROTW (343 Views) Tavasco 03/30/2019 08:50AM
Re: ROTW (356 Views) boardedup 03/30/2019 03:42PM
Re: ROTW FL Derby Right Wrong & Why? (416 Views) Tavasco 04/04/2019 05:20AM
Re: ROTW (462 Views) dodie 03/30/2019 08:36AM
Re: ROTW (558 Views) TGJB 03/30/2019 09:20AM
Re: ROTW (445 Views) dodie 03/30/2019 09:22AM
Re: ROTW (537 Views) JohnTChance 03/30/2019 07:48PM
Re: ROTW (506 Views) TGJB 03/30/2019 09:20PM
Re: ROTW (431 Views) bluechip21 03/30/2019 10:08PM
Re: ROTW (425 Views) rezlegal 03/30/2019 10:29PM
Re: ROTW (423 Views) bluechip21 03/30/2019 11:04PM
Re: ROTW (424 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 01:19AM
Re: ROTW (427 Views) johnnym 03/30/2019 09:59PM
Re: ROTW (454 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 12:31AM
Re: ROTW (447 Views) hellersorr 03/31/2019 01:00AM
Re: ROTW (439 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 01:23AM
Holy Crap! (482 Views) Ace 04/01/2019 10:08PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.