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Re: ROTW FL Derby Right Wrong & Why? (692 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: April 04, 2019 05:20AM

Enough time has now passed for me to look back upon last Saturday's FL Derby and reflect upon any thoughts I had or forgot to consider before the race. Further, what information can be considered relevant from the race itself.

Generally, prior to the race, I thought factors other than speed figures would have a significant influence on the outcome of the race. These colts after all are not established performers. They are adolescents growing, learning and developing into race horses. Essentially, I thought some form of industry iconage (sic) would lead to the performers. Without really thinking my intuition through I focused on ownership and trainer.

#1 Hidden Scroll. Many were suspect of his huge first race because of the wet possibly sealed surface on that occasion. Balanced by the facts we mostly trust both the trainer and jockey. What I forgot was when a race horse runs off and distances itself from the field sometimes (often enough to matter) the speed figure earned doesn't reflect how the horse will handle the mental aspect of competing. Bottom Line - over rated. Likely to be rested and brought back this summer destined to forever be an underlay.

#2 Current. I posted in TAP we trust. If I draw a line through his Dec race @ CD and assume his FL Derby was a pair, possible a new top this typically late developing Curlin colt c/b a Belmont Stakes candidate.

#3 Harvey Wallbanger. HARVEY WALLBANGER brushed with CURRENT and was off a step slow, raced well back three wide early, moved further out around the far turn and failed to menace. Draw a line thru this effort remember horse with a deep closing running style encounter trouble more often than others. He looks to be one best off a rest no previous evidence of improving while racing?

#4 Bourbon War. IMO, more evidence that the Remsen is overrated year after year. BOURBON WAR was unhurried early in the two-path, raced three then four wide around the far turn, and improved position without a solid bid. Sounds like the description of a good plodder. I think it can be argued that running the TG 1 in the GP Alw will take some more recovery time. NCIS Rule #11, Never bet a Hennig trainee if the spotlight is on it.

#5 Everfast. Somewhat of an alternator by pattern but seemingly not sturdy. Newly popular rider Landeros, rode as if he were a contender he was not. Another who will probably get some rest before reappearing in KY vs lesser.

#6 Hard Belle. UGH! Like, I think it was TGJB, mentioned recently, the best way to get a good table for lunch.

#7 Maximum Security. None s/b shocked this one won the race. But for the colt to be co favorite to win the KY Derby might be an over reaction. His win Saturday was not as surprising as his sire New Years Day, win in the BC Juvenile in what 2013? Simple faster than most with a healthy improving line. No need to cloud things up by arguing he was going two turns for the first time. Failing to realize that Hidden Scroll might not be a pace factor was a costly oversight.

#8 Bodexpress. Once again, too much weight attributed to class. The overlooked key here for me was a son of Bodemeister not a sprint influence runs a top in a sprint could be expected to pair or improve at a route especially when you note that it was Hidden Scroll who smoked him in the wet at his 1st effort at a mile. Add in he was 70/1. Absolutely irrelevant that he is a maiden. Every season a couple of maidens jump up in the Derby preps keying healthy scores. It disappoints me that I landed on the wrong long shot. Going forward, my assessment is that its about 60/40 that the effort triggers a bounce but with a trainer sure to be discounted and a price likely to hold up he will be on my Derby tickets.

#9 Code of Honor. CODE OF HONOR bumped with UNION'S DESTINY at the start, advanced moving in from the three-path after six furlongs, was in a full drive cutting the corner past the quarter-pole, shied out sharply from left-hand pressure outside the sixteenth-pole swapping leads back and forth, and held for the show. Not the first time this colt has done some bumping at the start or ran erratically in the stretch. I don't know what to make of that but JR didn't lose to much ground. I'm assuming he earned something close to a pair of his top. I still value the Galileo influence and think the colt has an upside.

#10 Union's Destiny. A regression after his previous jump up wasn't surprising. All in all, it turned out not to be the right race for this one. The optimism of the connections is somewhat understandable and I'm a fan of sire Union Rags. I put him in my horses to watch looking forward to his next or next next outing.

#11 Garter and Tie. As disappointed as I was with the jockey in the Holy Bull I was even more disappointed in the FL Derby. Bottom line - I was wrong the colt did not improve as I thought his line suggested. GARTER AND TIE raced widest early, remained well out in the track driven hard past the three-eighths,and had nothing left soon after that. As a pace handicapping aficionado It pains me the jockey took a colt with a P running style and attended the pace albeit modest. I continue to believe that this colt is better than its last two races. Classic contender he's NOT.

As has been pointed out previously - Class handicapping is considered dubious by many, especially on this site. MCL 16K vs MSW 80K, or winners vs non winners meaningful distinctions in general but in the end, if you take the time, details i.e. specifics are key to finding treasure.

Subject Written By Posted
ROTW (2629 Views) Mstrlucky74 03/29/2019 06:19PM
Re: ROTW (911 Views) TGJB 03/29/2019 07:00PM
Re: ROTW (850 Views) johnnym 03/29/2019 08:29PM
Re: Hidden Scroll (706 Views) BitPlayer 03/30/2019 01:45PM
Re: ROTW (714 Views) bobphilo 03/30/2019 04:14PM
Re: ROTW (615 Views) johnnym 03/31/2019 09:05AM
Re: ROTW (592 Views) ajkreider 03/31/2019 09:32AM
Re: Maximum Security (827 Views) BitPlayer 03/31/2019 12:19PM
Re: Maximum Security (726 Views) johnnym 03/31/2019 12:23PM
Re: Maximum Security (670 Views) ajkreider 04/02/2019 06:15PM
Re: Maximum Security (790 Views) Mathcapper 03/31/2019 01:44PM
Re: ROTW (758 Views) dannyboy135 03/29/2019 08:59PM
Re: ROTW (771 Views) richiebee 03/29/2019 09:57PM
Re: ROTW (712 Views) albatross 03/29/2019 10:58PM
Re: ROTW (660 Views) richiebee 03/29/2019 11:40PM
Re: ROTW (671 Views) Mstrlucky74 03/30/2019 06:42PM
Re: ROTW (650 Views) richiebee 03/31/2019 11:38AM
Re: ROTW (668 Views) Tavasco 03/30/2019 01:03AM
Re: ROTW (591 Views) johnnym 03/30/2019 08:05AM
Re: ROTW (597 Views) Tavasco 03/30/2019 08:50AM
Re: ROTW (596 Views) boardedup 03/30/2019 03:42PM
Re: ROTW FL Derby Right Wrong & Why? (692 Views) Tavasco 04/04/2019 05:20AM
Re: ROTW (687 Views) dodie 03/30/2019 08:36AM
Re: ROTW (805 Views) TGJB 03/30/2019 09:20AM
Re: ROTW (676 Views) dodie 03/30/2019 09:22AM
Re: ROTW (767 Views) JohnTChance 03/30/2019 07:48PM
Re: ROTW (751 Views) TGJB 03/30/2019 09:20PM
Re: ROTW (691 Views) bluechip21 03/30/2019 10:08PM
Re: ROTW (665 Views) rezlegal 03/30/2019 10:29PM
Re: ROTW (688 Views) bluechip21 03/30/2019 11:04PM
Re: ROTW (655 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 01:19AM
Re: ROTW (725 Views) johnnym 03/30/2019 09:59PM
Re: ROTW (680 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 12:31AM
Re: ROTW (669 Views) hellersorr 03/31/2019 01:00AM
Re: ROTW (662 Views) littlebird 03/31/2019 01:23AM
Holy Crap! (733 Views) Ace 04/01/2019 10:08PM

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