Re: Southwest Stakes (466 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: February 17, 2020 04:07PM
This is a little more subjective than Johnnym but a Florida perspective none the less.
Some Of My thoughts
#1 Wells Bayou
IMO, the danger with need to lead types is of course if they don't. This one dropped like a stone as in his second race. He may not be the quickest today and will be pressed hard in any case. That's a recipe for a fail in my book. You may argue he bounced. I'll Pass.
#2 Silver Prospector
I respect his win in the KY Jockey Club. His Smarty Jones is forgivable. The winner was much the best. The mud probably didn't help. Another I will move up if the track is dry.
A bargain @ anywhere near 8/1 m/l. Beat Answer In albeit hardly and is twice the price or more. The colt looks to be a good mover Clearly a use in the minor spots for me.
#4 Gold Street
Trainer Assmussen sure has a lot of horses in training. Absolutely no critism an apparent overachiever and @ 6/1 m/l. He appears at best a medium-sized colt but he sure dominated the Smarty Jones. My favorite.
#5 American Butterfly
Too many starts with too few results for me. Lukas doesn't baby them so generally what you see is what you get. I'll take a pass.
#6 Chase Tracker
Tap & JV. In from NY via PBD in Fl. Somethings up. They've got some kind of talent here even if they don't know what yet. M/L 7/2 mostly a function of reputations. I like that the colt is tractable and has acceleration. It looks to have an upside. Unfortunately not under the radar.
Overlooked at the windows in his first race even though trainer Englehart is 19%+ Ist out. Then a complete reversal in form @ OP.A gutsy win in the mud. Hard to know whether he lugged per chart or was ridden to block to 2nd place horse. I'd trust the TG sheet here and I'm not looking at it. I like the horses apparent grit but in to deep here, But I think his front running style and a dry track moves him up.
I'm guessing that trainer Baltas either doesn't know what he has with this one or the interesting ownership isn't concerned about cost. After watching his last two replayed I see no reason to be in this race much less bet on #8. M/L 5/1 means oddsmaker must be enamored with W/o's. I will admit this one w/o's are noticeable faster than previous tries. I like this colt @ 15/1
#9 Answer In
The Southwest Mile @ Remington and it $400k purse has become an event. Especially in this zip code. The horse imho was disadvantaged a bit by being in close and on the rail for the late stretch in his last. It could just as well have been the winner. What's noteworthy is St. Javier got to the rail from the #9 gate on that day. The same challenge today.
Bottom Line For me
If dry 2 or 4 on top and in ebx''s
As a vertical player, I fancy 3,6,& 7 in the under positions.
I think a good score is possible via exacta and/or tri
If wet I won't use # 2 in the winning spot.