Re: Are projected odds catching on? (164 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer
Date: February 29, 2020 11:27PM
Since the Fountain of Youth was the DRF race of the day, I looked to see how the early-win-money adjustments performed. The only significant adjustments were for Dennis' Moment and Ete Indian. In each case, the adjustment moved in the correct direction, but overshot the mark.
I have only analyzed the accuracy of the DD method seriously for NYRA. DRF is obviously casting a wider net, and I wonder if the method is less accurate for smaller tracks and if using the early win betting to refine the DD projections is more important there.
I see from Twitter that they are not doing this for CDI tracks, presumably because they don't have access to the tote data.
An aside: I looked at the Stronach Five this week and the payoff seemed light (not substantially better than the parlay). Do I have that right and, if so, does that occur often on carryover days? Thanks.