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 Race of the Week:  La Canada Stakes Santa Anita, Race 8, January 11, 2020 
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Re: Road to the Derby (332 Views)
Posted by: toppled (IP Logged)
Date: January 23, 2020 10:08PM

I like your write-up, but I do have to comment on the last 2 horses and your trainer comments on those 2.

#8 Casse's #s over a long sample are dragged down by meets 4 & 5 years ago, when he was running a lot more horses at Oaklawn than in recent years. He didn't run much at OP in 2017 1 for 1 (Classic Empire in the Ark. Derby) & 2018 0 for 2. Last year he raced sparingly compared with 2015 & 2016 when he ran 75 times and won 7, but when he showed up in 2019 he meant business going 5 for 16. If Casse comes close to 31% again in 2020, then the 13% long term numbers are irrelevant. Right now we don't know what we're getting, but I'd be inclined not to write off Casse at OP after last years stellar record.

#9 I can't call a regression off an almost 3 month layoff an X as part of an 0-2-X pattern. I prefer to see the races closer together to consider the regression meaningful. Also in that last race TT was geared down the final yards, then in the gallop out was caught but rebroke as he wouldn't let the other horses pass him-a very positive sign. As far as the sample on Englehart he's brought 2 longshots to 2 stakes with little chance at OP. One of them was the speed in American Pharoah's Ark Derby that faded at 38-1 once Pharoah passed him.
Englehart has a full stable of horses at OP for the 1st time in his career, so his past history is meaningless. [www.oaklawn.com]



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