Re: Road to the Derby (329 Views)
Posted by: johnnym
Date: January 23, 2020 12:51PM
This weeks road to the Derby takes us to Oaklawn for the
Smarty Asmussen Jones Stakes
9 runners entered with weight allowance
Asmussen has 4 of the 9 runners entered here
My main contenders
#2) Has run a 6 twice and may be sitting on a move forward 23% to run a new top with his go to jock 5-2
#6) Has won his last two sprinting on a sloppy track pairing he last two #s with a 6 has never been a route, is he a slop specialist?
Asmussen first time route wins at 19% while running new tops 13% of the time. Looks to be the speed. 5-1
#7) Has the fastest # in the race with a 5.2 Have to assume Asmussen is high on this horse running in 3 GR 1 all ready
Santana got of him to get on the 2 and Tyler is flying in
21% to run a new top 3-1
#8) Casse trainee and Casse doesn’t seem to do his best at Oaklawn winning at 13% clip. Numbers wise has paired his last two #s with 7s
Has a good chance to move forward has the stalking running style 6-1
#9) Has ran a pair of 6s them regressed a bit. Is this a 0-2-X pattern?
Stretching out to a route we’re the trainer wins at 12% first time routes
Trainer ships well winning at 26% has Ortiz on him.
Trainer not to good at Oaklawn but very small sample
Sire is not a big name so a bit of a unknown
My 2 cents do not like this race as much as the Lecomte as far as a investor.
So not going crazy here
My top pick
#7 for the win
The maiden may get a piece underneath,horse he finished second to last out just ran big.