Re: Smarty Jones Projected Odds (514 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer
Date: January 24, 2020 10:08AM
If anyone is interested, I'm going to post projected odds (based on DD betting) for the Smarty Jones on Twitter (@ProjectedOdds) once the prior race has been run. You don't have to have a Twitter account to see posts there.
Up to now, I have only done it for NYRA races. So far, I'm finding that the actual win payoff is within 15% of the projected win payoff about half the time. The method is more accurate than that for short-priced horses, presumably due to greater sample size. The accuracy of the method at Oaklawn could be different.