Re: Sam F Davis-- Pedigree Play (254 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: February 08, 2020 08:48AM
I spent the late hours of this morning watching Hong Kong races and most people running around with white surgical masks on. Some truly eye popping payoffs. I even saw a 50/1 horse coming. More and more I suppose it is what american racing will look like in the future.
In the wee hours of this morning I chose to watch all the replays of the Pasco field ending up with #3 Albert Park as the value horse. This Michael Stidham trainee has not been under the radar until today. He won his first race as the favorite in a full field @ AP. From there to Presque Isle for a 100K again as the favorite he won in gutsy fashion with a wide trip. 2/2 on all-weather somehow he ends up in the G3 Cecille B. DeMille on turf @ DMR in a full field. The winner embarrassed the field in that heat yet Albert Park's 6th (if I saw clearly) was in a group and pretty much the same as second. Evenly and credible.
Subsequently, he's brought down to FL and Tampa, note he's been well spotted to date, attending the:443 pace and finishing 2nd was again a confidence-inspiring performance. Upon close inspection as close as one can perform with semi glaze from an all night effort Albert Park does not seem to have the physique of a sprinter. He has some length and is a long-striding colt.
At that point, I refer back to the data to discover that his sire is Street Sense and that is good when considering a stretch out in distance. Furthermore, he was only really outrun in his DMR race. So via appearance added distance would not be a problem.
In considering the Sam Davis Stakes from a pace perspective it is clear to me that #6 Premier Star is a quick and fast colt if you want to be in front of him early you won't be around at the finish. He probably won't back up too too much either so a competitor needs to be close to catch him.
The slower pace a route race produces will help both #6 Premier Star (can he rate) and #3 Albert Hall. The favored $4 Independence Hall impressed me in each of his races and I expect him to win. Lastly I noticed that Albert Park is bred by Godolphin and maybe that explains his start on all weather and then turf prior to dirt in an effort to protect the young horse.
So it was a pleasant surprise when I finished documenting my thoughts on the race that I saw the same heat had attracted the interest of Richiebee and in fact a similar conclusion via different considerations. As WAPO would say confirmation.
My play w/b #3 Albert Hall under the top two favorites in exactas, a tri undert the top 2 and a super in fourth under the top two with all in third.