I'm not the world's biggest Nate Silver fan but in today's performances ratings he has Bernie going to the convention with an average figure of two or so, while Amy would enter with something like a TWENTY-two.

Personally, I think she can work down to a ten or twelve - maybe even an eight - as a lightly raced, improving filly against older competitors with their accompanying health issues.

Still a long way from a two, though. Plus she'll have to close from way back and weave her way through lots of traffic without checking.

Tab for show.