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 Race of the Week:  Belmont Stakes Day FInal Figures Belmont 20 June 2020 
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Re: One 40-1 vs six 5-1's (257 Views)
Posted by: P-Dub (IP Logged)
Date: February 15, 2020 01:47AM

skitimber Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure if this was overlooked or someone else
> commented. If so, my apologies.
>
> So many reasons to prefer hitting six 5-1's than
> one 40-1.
>
> a) More plays.
> b) More money (yes, more money!) Just letting your
> winnings ride on a 3 horse parlay would get you
> 125-1. Six in a row: 15625 - 1!!! Better than
> 40-1.
> c) If you bet big on a 40-1 shot, you would cut
> down the odds far more than on a 5-1 shot
> d) If you can winning 5-1's consistently, you
> would be the better handicapper because . . .
> e) There are fewer opportunities for winning 40-1
> shots.
>
> Sure there are more, but if I had a choice between
> going to the track with the guy who made only 6
> bets last year, all winners at 5-1, or the guy who
> made only one bet and won at 40-1, I'd want to go
> with Mr. 5-1 and would seek his advice. Then,
> after the races, would ask Mr. 40-1 to get a beer
> and explain his luck (sorry, his thinking!)

You missed my point.

The original comment was that 40-1 and other longshots were luck. Quite an assertion.

You're also making an assumption that the guy who can hit 40-1 shots can't hit a 5-1 shot. Those get hit also.

You're also making a huge assertion that the 5-1 horses can be strung along for winning parlays. They can, but you really think these guys are stringing together 3-6 race parlays???

Betting big depends on the size of the pool. Large bets into smaller pools knock down those prices also.

Hitting more 5-1 shots make you a better handicapper than a guy hitting fewer at 40-1....how so?? Because you pick more winners??

I guess Lemons Forever, Storm The Court, Volponi, etc...those were "luck"?? Not if you used this product. Guys that hit 5-1 shots are all brilliant handicappers??

I think finding longshots at 40-1 takes more skill than hitting 5-1 shots. Just my opinion.

BC day was very good to me, getting "lucky" with that 45-1 shot. I think I'm pretty good. Not the best, but better than a lot of guys who hit 5-1 horses and can't pull the trigger on a long shot. I sat next to a couple pretty good handicappers on BC Friday, they thought I was nuts playing STC.

You can hang out with your 5-1 guys, I'll hang out with the guy that takes home more cash and ask him how he did it. It aint always luck.

P-Dub



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