I think you are employing way too much ideological "lane theory" and not nearly enough demographic/class "lane theory."

But that, as they say, is why they run around the racetrack. We will know soon enough.

I also think a lot of people are doing way too much early, fine-line weighing of things like delegates and percentages. They are weighing with a cocaine scale that is soon going to be stepped on by an elephant, or a donkey, whatever, one of those big things.