skitimber Wrote:
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> Not trying to offend and I wasn't comparing a
> single 40 - 1 shot to a single 5 - 1.
>
> I was comparing a single 40 - 1 vs. SIX 5-1's.
>
> We're assuming that the one guy gave you a single
> selection and the other gave you six selections,
> and all seven horses hit.
>
> Just looking at the odds against both: one is 40-1
> while the other is 15625 to 1.
> That's not even close.
>
> If you're making different assumptions, different
> odds.

Nobody disputes that a 6 horse parlay at 5/1 each wins more than a single 40-1 shot.

How likely is it that someone is going to feed you six consecutive winning 5/1 shots?? I was never making that assumption. I don't know of many people that would receive picks, and decide to run them all together in a parlay.

My point, and I'll leave it alone after this, is that hitting 40-1 shots isn't always "luck"......and that hitting 5/1 shots isn't a better show of skill.

P-Dub