Bernie has a ceiling of 40% of the D vote, which is what he and Warren have been cutting up. He wins only as long as the moderates are split. If they go to a brokered convention it's hard to see them giving the nod to someone who represents a minority of the party, is not even a member of that party, and takes the general from a referendum on Trump to a referendum on Socialism.

What's happening with Amy has been too sudden for the polls to catch, as it was in N.H.-- they use a rolling time period, not real time. Next couple of states will tell the tale as to whether she has a real shot. She is by far the best public speaker in the race, and has the least baggage (so far), and people are starting to pay attention.

600 pound gorilla is clearly Bloomberg.