Pace handicapping (826 Views)
Posted by:
HP (IP Logged)
Date: September 19, 2004 11:12AM
Talk about pace handicapping, how about yesterday's Kentucky Cup at Turfway? Whew. Everything on the lead.
3rd race - Speed one-two. The winner fit on figs, figured to want the lead, loved the track (3 wins at TP), stalked briefly and took over. Results on the chalky side. We'll take it.
5th - inside speed. Day takes the place with the rail horse (kills my exotics) and outside speed comes 3rd.
7th - According to pacefigures.com (!) the winner has the best early lick, so I give that extra credit in addition to the fact the the horse figures on TG. Decent price, favorite figured to stalk a lot of speed, does, and comes second. Middlin exacta and miss the tri.
9th - Here's where it gets a little sticky. The winner wired them around two turns, but who could figure that I'm a Dixie Girl wouldn't chase? She looked like the speed all the way and I figured she might even get the lead to herself since Day may want to wait on Winning Season instead of dueling. I liked the winner because I thought she would stalk and instead she just blasted them. I'll take it.
10th - Place horse takes them all the way (surprise!) I figured Sequoia Cat and Storied Cat (even money, sitting on a good one, but slower going in) would duel, and I liked the former better (he's much faster). I like the winner and the show horse to pick up the pieces in the exotics, but who could figure Magna Graduate to lead them all the way and hang around for second? Not me. Painful, as the bad favorite ran as expected and still couldn't nail it.
So to sum up, it was obvious that the speed was the way to go, but figuring out who would capitalize on it was much harder -- and this is no reflection on the value or potential value of pace figures.
Anybody else play these? HP