A lot of frontrunners winning races is not pace handicapping. Pace handicapping involves looking at the performance of the horse (speed figure) in relation to the pace of the race. In the 13th race, the horse was the ONLY closer in a field of pure frontrunners. The question was, did he have the ability to win even with the proper pace setup.

Well, for one thing, the horse had run like 6 times in a row on turf and was not bred for the surface at all. His previous dirt races made him very competitive and with the likely advantageous pace, he was a bet at 10-1.

The Lukas winner was another example of "pace handicapping." She had similiar final time figures to the other contenders, but had earned them while competing in tougher races against faster paces. Another example of pace handicapping. This horse was a huge overlay at 6-1. This is what pace handicapping is all about, not picking which horse will be the frontrunner.