Random thoughts on pace and bias:

1. As soon as the smart jockeys realize there's a speed bias they tend to get more aggressive out of the gate. That causes faster than average paces which tend to offset the bias. The reverse is also true. You see this on sloppy speed favoring tracks all the time.

2. Even if there is a reasonably strong bias you shouldn’t expect every race to be won by a horse with the advantageous style or position. It’s just a bias in the results, not a lock on the results.

3. Sometimes the sprint races around one turn are different than the two turn routes on the same day.

4. A bias advantage/disadvantage does not help/hurt every horse equally. A strong speed bias will generally help a horse with a lot of early foot but questionable stamina more than a horse with both a lot of speed and stamina. A tiring track will hurt a horse with questionable stamina more than a horse with a lot of stamina even if they are both of the same style. For Example: A speed bias is not going to help Seattle Slew run much faster at a mile. It might help a Grade I 6-7F horse that generally tires run a lifetime best by a wide margin at a mile.

5. Horses rate. Prior fractions often tell us little about the amount of speed the horse is capable of showing if pressed for the lead.



Post Edited (09-20-04 09:58)