Re: Pace handicapping (436 Views)
Posted by:
beyerguy (IP Logged)
Date: September 20, 2004 03:31PM
CH,
First, aren't speed and an inside post always an advantage, sprint and route?
Second,I don't see an inside speed bias for sprints. Where is the substantial evidence you say is necessary?
Race 1: favorite wins wire to wire
Race 3: a 3-1 shot hangs on by a 1/2 after opening a three length lead
Race 5: a 7-2 2d choice wins easily on the front, but the favorite runs a bad race as other off the pace types beat him easily
Race 7: A 5-1 shot lays 2d, 1 1/2 behind, goes three wide into the turn and draws away from the badly beaten frontrunner, that was also 5-1
Race 13: The longest shot in the field rallies from way, way back to win easily while widest of all
Race 14: Another horse comes from way, way back, at 7-2, to beat the frontrunning favorite that fades to a badly beaten 4th
I think its very tough (impossible) to assess a potential bias without first handicapping the card, and further, I think most biases are figments of the handicapper's imagination.
HP,
I tried to be nice, but if you like to come off as an @$$, so be it. I'd rather you go ahead and base judgements on only the part of the card you happen to see or handicap.