SoCalMan,

The list of horses is pretty long. Nobody can argue that exactly one horse in the past 57 years has won the derby off of two or less preps. You can say that doesn't matter, Jerry also has said he thinks the stat is deceiving because many of those horses had less than three preps because of physical ailments or other issues besides intentional light campaigns. Maybe, but the facts are the facts, once since 1948 is a statistic and those of us that choose to follow it are not arrogant or showing poor judgment.

Not sure if you are a T-Graph user and methodology follower, but if you are, not sure why you are blaming pace for Point Given's bad race in the Derby. Point Given was not on the pace, he was several lengths off of the hot pace, further off than Congaree. He came up flat in the stretch and ran a bad race, much worse than Congaree, who most would say was inferior to Point Given. PG came back and trounced CG despite a very wide trip in the Preakness and then crushed the Belmont field.

The trainer, as well as many other horse players feel he was a short horse in the Derby and then ran to his true form in the Preakness and Belmont. Maybe you disagree, more power to you.

You will get your price on Blues and Royal in the Derby. Good luck with it. The Dubai angle has been miserable in the Derby, which is another "fact" backed up by stats, not something Andy Beyer made up. One prep in Dubai, then traveling to the US and running off a layoff in the Derby is not a winning angle, although the sample is admittedly much smaller than the "one winner since 1948 with less than three preps angle".