Dear Classhandicapper,

Looks like I got stuck at the office and got an opportunity to fire off one last response before off to bed --

I am saying there IS a correlation between Sunny's Halo's derby preps and how he ran in the Derby. You are saying there is none and it is purely coincidence. We will never resolve that one, but you said there was a clear zero of countervailing evidence to your position. Not any old zero, not approximately zero, but a CLEAR ZERO.

Pretty fancy footwork this -- "oh that, it was just a coincidence" -- is.

So, let's put Sunny's Halo aside.

How do you explain Jerry's post about Victory Gallop running a top in the Derby off two preps? Remember -- a top that was the best fig in the race. Do you think that Victory Gallop ran a worse effort than Real Quiet did? Are these now two pure coincidences where horses happened to run the best figure in the Derby off two preps?

I guess the clear zero needs some more fancy footwork to pull it out, but lets assume you do and Jerry and me are wrong about Victory Gallop, Real Quiet really ran the better race.

You are very confident this means (enough to say there is clearly zero countervailing evidence) that it was Real Quiet's three preps that got him the victory over Victory Gallop's two preps. That is putting an awful lot of weight on that January debacle which for some reason is considered a prep. If I were asking you to show some correlations, I would like to see how that one works.

Anyway, why should I have to show any correlation between the great races Sunny's Halo, Victory Gallop, and Real Quiet ran off two preps? Yep, I am not counting the January Debacle but since people play fast and loose in this argument, why can't I? My whole point is that this is an area of something we philosophers call "uncertainty." Your whole point is that I am unequivocally wrong. Wrong to the point that there is "clearly ZERO" countervailing evidence to support me.

Shouldn't you have the burden of proof here not me? Shouldn't you have to prove the absence of a correlation (yes I am asking you to prove a negative -- but when things are 100% clear that is not so hard to do --it should be as easy as proving that 2 plus 2 do not equal 5).

Maybe you can prove the correlation between three races and a good effort? Just like the one that Sunny's Halo threw in the Preakness, right? I know, I know -- he had a rash.

Well, I am going to get a few hours sleep.