Re: Arrogance and poor judgment ..... (341 Views)
Date: March 29, 2005 12:18PM
I absolutely agree with Beyer. However, I wouldn't just toss the horse out the way Beyer suggests. I would discount his chances. In other words, if I thought he was clearly the most talented horse and would deserve to be 3-1 if prepped properly, I would insist on around 6/8-1 or so before considering a bet. I don't think any stat is black and white. Stats simply impact probabilities. There is obviously somewhat limited evidience in this prep race stat. However, based on my experience I think there's certainly enough evidence to conclude that a single prep CAN'T BE OPTIMUM. It's either neutral or negative. Given that it might be negative, I want to be compensated for that risk until such time that we have enough evidence to indicate otherwise.
Post Edited (03-29-05 12:23)