So Cal,

Do you think the correct way to treat the Derby is the same as every other race? If so, then great for you. I do think the Derby is a little different. Asking horses to run farther than they have ever before, this early in their 3 year old year, is a tall task and I think patterns that would fit races like your normal stakes race or Breeders CUp race, may not hold true in the Derby. I personally believe that preparation is important (not the only factor for sure). But, that doesn't mean that I ignore number power. The first thing I look for (we all have our approaches) is for a fast horse, with tactical speed (to avoid traffic. Then at the next level of importance to me are a trainer with triple crown experience, a horse with experience at CD, a horse with the proper foundation to get 1 1/4 (for me this is three preps)

Treating the derby like any other race would be akin to using the sheets to judge how 8 horses who are all first time turf, first time route, having raced only in dirt sprints and handicapping the race using only their dirt sprint T-Graph figures. I think you have to look at other factors.