Re: Arrogance and poor judgment ..... (341 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: March 29, 2005 01:50PM
Jimbo66
This is Logic 101.
Classhandicapper wrote -- "The most important point though is that there's cleary ZERO evidence that this is the right way to go."
I am pointing out that since there is one example, he is CLEARLY wrong when he utters "There's clearly ZERO evidence." Since that race was in the last 25 years, I guess 4% of the time the race is won by a horse with 2 or less preps. 4% is CLEARLY more than zero.
Remember, my point is that I don't know the answer. I am just skeptical of other people who are certain they know the answer when I think it is really a very unclear area. However, I am very happy that there are people out there who feel certain about something which I think is uncertain. It will provide good odds which at some point will be lucrative.
We can argue all the statistics we want; my point is that this is not an argument that can be won by statistics. When I handicap any race, I do not care one iota about the history of the prior runnings of that race. All I care about are the horses in that race and what kind of efforts I think they will put out and what kind of trips they will get and how much weight they are carrying. What happened in last year's (or the year before's edition) is something that does not enter into my handicapping one iota.