Classhandicapper,

I have never worked in a stable and know just about nothing about training horses. I do not know Saeed Bin Suroor, but, if he is the same guy who had a few horses come up with positives at Saratoga, I do not think he is a moron when it comes to training horses (although he may not be so good at getting away with using the juice).

I also know that trainers have been able to get horse's to win big Grade 1 races off long layoffs (even Breeders Cup races) when they are training the best horse in the race (and have also done it off one or two race preps). Now, maybe, the Derby should be different than all other races because of the age of the horses and the weight and distance run (you never hear about this stuff at the Breeders Cup).

I also know that, in many things in life, there is no one right way and different strokes do work for different folks. I am not saying light prep is the way to win the derby. I am saying having the fastest horse is the best way to win the derby, and the people who say there is only one way to win the derby are more likely to be wrong than right.

As far as your most important point, Sunny's Halo will CLEARLY dispose of that argument right away. There is obviously at least a peppercorn of countervailing evidence even if nobody wants to look at it.

I do not know anything about training horses, so I do not have the answers. I am just saying that the people who are saying there is only one way may not have the answers either. Horatio Luro used to say do not squeeze the lemon dry. What does that mean? Does it have applicability here? Did he know what he was talking about? Maybe the best trainers in the world will tell you that there is no one answer, and it depends on the horse. How many preps did H. Allen give Sensitive Prince? Just curious. Also, what happens if we decide to look at all Derbies and not just the ones from 1948 to the present? Maybe there will be some evidence. Who knows?

Like I said, I am very happy to be in the minority here. This is how outlandish prices come about. If I can get 30-1 on the fastest (by a healthy margin) horse in the Derby, it will be the greatest horseracing day in my life -- even if I suffer my biggest loss on that horse. I may not win, but, I will be doing the right thing. And, if you do it enough times, you will find some profits.