By the way, buried in one of Chris' posts was some very interesting information. During the years 1983 to 1991 there was exactly ONE horse who tried to win the Derby off less than three prep races. It was Sunny's Halo, who won. So the whole business about the large number of years with only one horse pulling it off becomes somewhat misleading.

I have liked some horses with only 2 preps, and I bet Sunny's Halo. From 92 to 97, based on Chris' list, there was not one I liked in the Derby, and two (Arazi and Talkin Man) were short priced horses that I took a big position against, publicly, on Post Time and in the DRF. From 98 on there were several I thought were strong contenders, some ran well (Victory Gallop, Proud Citizen, Peace Rules), and some did not (Point Given, Saarland, Read The Footnotes). And there were LOTS of horses with two or less preps that I did NOT like and that didn't run well. My guess is that my position on these horses-- based on their ability (how fast they were) and patterns was about as good as my position on the ones with three or more starts. And I have done very well on the race overall.



TGJB