Again, pay attention to WHY the frog wouldn't jump. Training methods have changed a lot-- horses used to run once a week and prep for the Derby a few days out (and how they were able to do that involves a few deaf frogs of its own). If a horse had only two preps it was almost certainly because a physical ailment kept him from running, which of course would bias the results, and since they didn't train horses to run well off layoffs (ran them into shape), the horses figured to be less fit as well.

The sample that applies to this Derby goes back at most to the 70's, and with training methods changing dramatically recently (note the preps being pushed further and further back from the Derby), one could take the position that it is much, much more recent.

One of the problems with your plan for weeding out some off 2 or less preps is that it leaves us with horses that TG players hated, specifically Talkin Man and Arazi, and would eliminate Victory Gallop and Proud Citizen, who we used. But the whole thing is academic-- the whole point of what we do here is to develop a way to most accurately measure performance. We have the most accurate data known to man, and using it we have found no evidence that 2 or less preps reduces a horse's chances of running his race. And by the way, my guess is that it would come up about the same with Beyer or Ragozin-- over large population studies it shouldn't make much difference which figures you use.



TGJB