Re: Deaf Frogs (350 Views)
Date: March 31, 2005 05:00PM
spa,
Off the top of my head I can't compile a list, but there are a real lot of horses that came into the Derby and BC with a slightly sub par race and then peaked perfectly at the right time. I don't know if it was intentional or a bounce, but I've hit a few at a big price.
I've noticed it so often (especially in the BC races) that I now put way less weight on a horses last effort these days than I normally do when I am handicapping the really big ones.
Of course if there's a lot of evidence the horse is just "done" then that's something different, but I think it's a great idea to look at the peak effort and not just the last race. A lot of trainers send them out short in that last prep (or bounced whatever you believe).