It's not a question of resistance. It's a question of doing the research, looking at the evidence, and coming up with a conclusion. If the study had shown different results, a lot of people would be agreeing with you.

For me personally, you have to keep in mind that I've managed lots of horses, and was down this road with VG, who got only two preps, but not by design-- he was sick. Without that he would have run in the softest, richest preps we could find, because he started the year as NOT one of the fastest 3yos, and it would have been crazy to take a route that made the Derby the specific goal-- it's too hard a target (and as we found, there is too much randomness).

BUT-- if I did have a top contender, and knew it as I mapped out a campaign, and/or the owner wasn't primarily concerned with running things like a business, and wanted to shoot specifically for the classics, I would go with two preps. I think this greatly reduces your chance of peaking too early (and I think several have this year, again), and gives the trainer more chance to adjust-- it's easier to tighten a horse up before or after the last prep than it is to back off once he peaks in March-- as Michael said with High Fly, the only move is to lay them off, which is tough to sell, and tricky to do right.

The other issue is a long term one-- if you are a little short for the Derby, you'll be tight for the next one. If you are over the top, the compacted triple crown schedule is the end of the horse--you are much better off being one race too late than one race too early. In my not so humble opinion, the 3 prep or more deal is one reason why these triple crown horses ain't sticking around-- and others are starting to agree with me. It's worth noting that VG was one of the few horses of recent years who ran in all 3 races, and still had success as a 4yo. And among those horses with only two preps were Lemon Drop Kid, Birdstone and Point Given, who along with us won the Belmont (just since 97) as all the others were looking for a place to lie down, Lion Heart and Peace Rules, who went on to win the Haskell, and Essence Of Dubai and Old Trieste, who also won G1s. Out of only 24 horses.



TGJB