Re: Deaf Frogs (335 Views)
Date: March 31, 2005 03:02PM
TGJB,
There is obviously no pefect solution otherwise I don't think we'd even be having this discussion. All we can do is look at all the evidence and try to take all the biases out to form a view.
I trust your figures and your subjective handicapping skills. That hasn't been the issue.
The issue/debate for me is what should a prudent gambler do with a horse like High Limit given what we know and don't know?
Suppose he comes into the Derby with the fastest figures and looks ready to move forward further. Now suppose my "fair odds" line on him is 4-1. I look at the board and see 5-1. Normally I'd probably make the bet.
Then I notice he's had only 2 preps and four career starts.
In that case I think it might be prudent to just pass. (at 10-1 I'd have a different view)
I'm not giving up much by passing the race.
There could even be another equal overlay in the race I can bet instead and lose nothing at all by betting the other one.
Since "I personally" am not satisfied that there isn't a "prep issue" based on all the data I have seen, there "could be" a lot of "downside" to taking 5-1 on this horse. I'd like to avoid any potential downside until I have a stronger view.
Since I have a hard time believing that anyone can be "that certain" about this issue at this point, I don't see why my suggestion has run into a lot of resistance. I thought it was very prudent advice that would be accepted quickly regardless of what everyone's view on the issue is now based on the data we have seen.
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