Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: David, David, David. (1133 Views)
Posted by: David Patent (IP Logged)
Date: May 29, 2002 07:18PM

Actually, Jerry, they used the same variant. See Friedman's post on the subject.

To your other points:

1) I have made figures before so I don't need a lecture on the subject. Your first sentence reveals exactly what I have been saying all along -- that the past determines the future; and that's why you get into trouble messing with variants, making them faster, slower, faster to so that the 'tight ranges' are not violated.

2) The dead horse is beaten.

3) Jerry, all I know is what the number was -- it was a 19. It was early in the year 1990 or 1991 I think. I'm sure you think Ragozin got the number wrong, so what's the point of discussing this?

4) However you want to characterize the % change -- and I still believe that it is more meaningful to deal with realistic ranges -- I asked for some historical data to back up your adjustment. You gave none. Zippo. Zilch. And we both know why, don't we?

5) You are still failing to engage on the specific horses involved. Yes, graded horses tend to run better, yes they tend to run more close to their tops. But my point was, and is still unrefuted by you that the specific horses in the Schafer all figured to bounce and all but 1 of them (Bowman's Band) were not typical graded stakes horses but allowance-types who happened to be entered in a graded stake race whose particular patterns were awful going into the race. Now, you can always claim that Ragozin's numbers in the prior races for these horses were all wrong, but if I look at the Rag. sheets and try to say what percent chance those horses had of running well, it was about 80/90% to run bad for most of them. You arbitrarily pick 50/50 but 1) look at the percentage of good numbers most of those horses were running and 2) the % of the time they bounced off big efforts. That will give you a clue that 50/50 was wildly optimistic for that bunch. And even if the chance of all running bad was 2% that's still 1 race in 50, which happens 2-3 times a day in America.

6) Fair enough. However, I think it's fair to say that the content on this board is more confrontational to the competitor than vice versa, which I don't have a problem with in theory, though the substance of most of the posts is, shall we say, less than enlightened.



Subject Written By Posted
Last Words? (2302 Views) David Patent 05/28/2002 10:51PM
Didn't we already talk science? (1307 Views) Treadhead 05/29/2002 12:10AM
Re: Didn't we already talk science? (1206 Views) JimP 05/29/2002 12:33AM
Re: Didn't we already talk science? (1116 Views) David Patent 05/29/2002 12:43AM
Re: Didn't we already talk science? (1151 Views) Treadhead 05/29/2002 01:11AM
Re: Didn't we already talk science? (1097 Views) TGJB 05/29/2002 03:27PM
Re: David, David, David. (1205 Views) Mall 05/29/2002 02:12AM
Re: David, David, David. (1207 Views) tegger 05/29/2002 03:39AM
Re: David, David, David. (1162 Views) Mark O'Keeffe 05/29/2002 04:58AM
Re: David, David, David. (1201 Views) Alydar in California 05/29/2002 08:23AM
Re: David, David, David. (1219 Views) David Patent 05/29/2002 04:28PM
Re: David, David, David. (1173 Views) Alydar in California 05/29/2002 05:02PM
Re: David, David, David. (1075 Views) David Patent 05/29/2002 05:35PM
Re: David, David, David. (1131 Views) TGJB 05/29/2002 06:11PM
Re: David, David, David. (1133 Views) David Patent 05/29/2002 07:18PM
Re: David, David, David. (1170 Views) JimP 05/29/2002 07:37PM
Re: David, David, David. (1098 Views) TGJB 05/29/2002 08:16PM
Re: David, David, David. (1093 Views) David Patent 05/30/2002 12:48AM
Re: David, David, David. (1159 Views) teekay 06/03/2002 08:17PM
Re: David, David, David. (1216 Views) mandown 05/29/2002 09:58PM
Re: David, David, David. (1126 Views) David Patent 05/30/2002 12:25AM
Re: David, David, David. (1075 Views) mandown 05/30/2002 02:46AM
Re: David, David, David. (1206 Views) David G. Patent 05/30/2002 03:48AM
Re: David, David, David. (1192 Views) Alydar in California 05/30/2002 09:29AM
Re: David, David, David. (1187 Views) Patrick Morgan 05/29/2002 05:03PM
Re: David, David, David. (1158 Views) Alydar in California 05/29/2002 05:15PM
Re: David, David, David. (1140 Views) Patrick Morgan 05/29/2002 05:38PM
Re: David, David, David. (1212 Views) Alydar in California 05/30/2002 10:25PM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1233 Views) Mall 05/30/2002 10:48PM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1103 Views) Alydar in California 05/31/2002 12:02AM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1186 Views) David G. Patent 05/31/2002 03:37AM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1267 Views) Alydar in California 05/31/2002 07:25AM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1108 Views) Alydar in California 05/31/2002 07:30AM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1155 Views) David G. Patent 05/31/2002 12:42PM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1208 Views) David G. Patent 05/31/2002 12:45PM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1127 Views) David G. Patent 05/31/2002 12:50PM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1268 Views) HP 05/31/2002 01:16PM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1117 Views) TGJB 05/31/2002 04:41PM
Re: jerry (1257 Views) superfreakicus 05/31/2002 05:34PM
Re: jerry (1128 Views) HP 05/31/2002 05:56PM
Re: jerry (1123 Views) David Patent 05/31/2002 06:02PM
Re: jerry (1174 Views) superfreakicus 05/31/2002 06:20PM
Re: jerry (1192 Views) superfreakicus 05/31/2002 06:32PM
Re: jerry (1082 Views) HP 05/31/2002 06:55PM
Re: jerry (1165 Views) Alydar in California 05/31/2002 07:35PM
Re: jerry (1082 Views) TGJB 05/31/2002 08:33PM
Re: jerry (1058 Views) Jason L. 05/31/2002 09:44PM
Re: jerry (1153 Views) Michael D. 05/31/2002 10:05PM
Re: jerry (1210 Views) Jason L. 05/31/2002 10:34PM
Re: jerry (1151 Views) TGJB 05/31/2002 11:06PM
Re: endless bitchy catfights (1165 Views) superfreakicus 06/01/2002 07:21AM
Re: jerry (1178 Views) Jason L. 06/01/2002 08:32PM
Re: jerry (1232 Views) TGJB 06/02/2002 04:13PM
Re: jerry (1327 Views) Jason L. 06/03/2002 07:40PM
Bill Clinton Medallion of Merit (1267 Views) Anonymous User 06/01/2002 03:15AM
Re: jerry (1151 Views) TGJB 05/31/2002 08:27PM
David: Two More Things To Think About (1130 Views) Mall 05/31/2002 08:42PM
Re: David: Two More Things To Think About (1045 Views) BrettFavre 05/31/2002 09:34PM
Re: David: Two More Things To Think About (1152 Views) tgab 05/31/2002 10:20PM
Re: David: Two More Things To Think About (1115 Views) TGJB 05/31/2002 11:04PM
Re: jerry (1203 Views) HP 05/31/2002 06:12PM
Re: Mild Dissent. (1152 Views) TGJB 05/31/2002 04:07PM
Re: alydar (1200 Views) superfreakicus 05/31/2002 04:37PM
Re: David, David, David. (1133 Views) Patrick Morgan 06/03/2002 11:53PM
Re: David, David, David. (1154 Views) Alydar in California 06/04/2002 07:37AM
Re: David, David, David. (1077 Views) TGJB 05/29/2002 03:15PM
Re: David, David, David. (1079 Views) TGJB 05/29/2002 03:10PM
track speed (1165 Views) nunzio 05/29/2002 11:37AM
Re: Last Words? (959 Views) HP 05/29/2002 01:20PM
Re: Last Words? (1165 Views) TGJB 05/29/2002 05:50PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.