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Re: Elliot Safdie (391 Views)
Posted by: Captain Stormfield (IP Logged)
Date: May 10, 2005 08:50PM

"Other than discussions here concerning the circumstances surrounding the figure, did anyone hear a controversy regarding the number?"

It's possible Safdie is referring to James Quinn's timely piece in the Derby edition of Horseplayer Magazine. Quinn touts Rockport Harbor(!) as one of only four Derby contenders, and then in a sidebar makes the case that Bellamy Road's 120 is inflated, working off the variant for the two preceeding sprints Wood day.

Quinn says the "standard" sprint/route variant ratio is three-to-two, that is, a deviation of three lenghts in routes for every two lengths in sprints. He says the sprint variant was fast 10, making the Wood variant fast 15. And so he feels confident he can lop off 10 Beyer points from Survivalist's 92, causing him to run three lengths slower for his second place finish in the Wood(G1) than he did in his 2YO maiden win in October.

I made that last part up. Quinn only works off the winner and therefore delivers up this nonsense:

"Although estimating variants can be an arty process, and that was surely the situation here, it's difficult to imagine how the Beyer associates arrived at the lofty 120. The projection technique could not have sufficed to estimate the route variant, as no horse in the Wood Memorial had recorded even a Beyer Speed Figure of 103, the equivalent Beyer par for the race, and Bellamy Road had not run faster than a Beyer 96. The projection technique would have yielded an even faster track variant, thereby reducing Bellamy Road's speed figure below a Beyer 110."

Now that I think about it, Quinn's logic doesn't rise to the level of "controversy." It was your Bellamania posts Safdie was referring to, Chuckles.




Subject Written By Posted
Elliot Safdie (714 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/09/2005 09:43PM
Re: Elliot Safdie (463 Views) beyerguy 05/10/2005 05:36AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (410 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/10/2005 07:50AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (413 Views) 05/10/2005 08:13AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (429 Views) albany 05/10/2005 08:19AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (371 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/10/2005 08:31AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (372 Views) 05/10/2005 09:23AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (384 Views) HP 05/10/2005 10:19AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (354 Views) 05/10/2005 10:30AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (388 Views) HP 05/10/2005 10:55AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (391 Views) jbelfior 05/10/2005 11:29AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (422 Views) 05/10/2005 11:37AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (413 Views) HP 05/10/2005 12:01PM
Re: Elliot Safdie (359 Views) 05/10/2005 11:35AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (391 Views) Captain Stormfield 05/10/2005 08:50PM
Re: Elliot Safdie (368 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/10/2005 11:50PM
Re: Elliot Safdie (372 Views) 05/11/2005 08:36AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (368 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/11/2005 09:41AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (424 Views) 05/11/2005 09:55AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (417 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/11/2005 10:24AM
Re: Elliot Safdie (415 Views) jimbo66 05/11/2005 12:05PM
Re: Elliot Safdie (399 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/11/2005 12:24PM
Re: Elliot Safdie (405 Views) JJP 05/11/2005 01:11PM
Re: Elliot Safdie (513 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 05/11/2005 01:21PM
Re: Elliot Safdie (391 Views) JJP 05/11/2005 01:55PM


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