Captain Stormfield wrote:

> "Other than discussions here concerning the circumstances
> surrounding the figure, did anyone hear a controversy regarding
> the number?"
>
> It's possible Safdie is referring to James Quinn's timely piece
> in the Derby edition of Horseplayer Magazine. Quinn touts
> Rockport Harbor(!) as one of only four Derby contenders, and
> then in a sidebar makes the case that Bellamy Road's 120 is
> inflated, working off the variant for the two preceeding
> sprints Wood day.
>
> Quinn says the "standard" sprint/route variant ratio is
> three-to-two, that is, a deviation of three lenghts in routes
> for every two lengths in sprints. He says the sprint variant
> was fast 10, making the Wood variant fast 15. And so he feels
> confident he can lop off 10 Beyer points from Survivalist's 92,
> causing him to run three lengths slower for his second place
> finish in the Wood(G1) than he did in his 2YO maiden win in
> October.

hmmmm Only 3 lengths? What about 6 maybe 8?. TGraph had Survivalist running a 6.1 for that October race. Regressing to nearly a 7 in his first 3YO start. Regression to a 6 in the Wood loses four lengths. Regression to an 8 would be eight lengths. That might seem unreasonable if you believed Survivalist was a two turn horse.

TGraph uses the far more reliable technique of considering the field. That doesn't mean its not at times problematic. It doesnt mean they weren't right either.

> I made that last part up. Quinn only works off the winner and
> therefore delivers up this nonsense:
>
> "Although estimating variants can be an arty process, and that
> was surely the situation here, it's difficult to imagine how
> the Beyer associates arrived at the lofty 120. The projection
> technique could not have sufficed to estimate the route
> variant, as no horse in the Wood Memorial had recorded even a
> Beyer Speed Figure of 103, the equivalent Beyer par for the
> race, and Bellamy Road had not run faster than a Beyer 96. The
> projection technique would have yielded an even faster track
> variant, thereby reducing Bellamy Road's speed figure below a
> Beyer 110."
>
> Now that I think about it, Quinn's logic doesn't rise to the
> level of "controversy." It was your Bellamania posts Safdie
> was referring to, Chuckles.

I wasn't implying anyone but the Wonks here read my posts and I'm generally discounted and that bothers me to no end...lol j/k

I would need more information to try and figure out what Quinn was saying 17 lengths is undoubtedly a lot of Beyer points. Essentially it looks like hes implying the others regressed and they got the variant wrong which essentially was my position.

However, they made they sprint variant an 8 and the route variant a 10, this despite the fact that essentially four track records were set my animals that hadn't run track records before. The true variants were much lower in my estimation and each click there is an additional length.



Post Edited (05-11-05 00:09)