CTC,

"I would need more information to try and figure out what Quinn was saying 17 lengths is undoubtedly a lot of Beyer points. Essentially it looks like hes implying the others regressed and they got the variant wrong which essentially was my position."

The pace of the Wood was essentially in line with the final time. By definition, that means the pace was fast for the class because no matter what you assign the race - anything between 110 and 120 is still very fast for the bunch of Grade 3 animals that were chasing Bellamy Road.

IMO, several horses clearly raced close enough to BR to be impacted by that pace. I played Scrappy T in the Withers for that very reason. IMO, he didn't regress in the Wood, he was impacted by pace.

In my studies, I have found that when a dominant front runner crushes the opposition (like BR did), it often sets a pace that is too fast for most of the other participants. That causes them to run slower than they would otherwise run. There is no exact formula for this. IMO, the horses right on, or just off the pace, are usually impacted. However, I often even find many of the closers running subpar races. I "think" that's because the internal fractions remain fast from start to finish and when they are trying to get into contention they get used up also. That's not the same race development as the typical duel where the race collapses in the late middle and allows the closers to get into contention with ease.

In any event, if you interpret the victory in terms of the margins, you wind up giving an inflated figure to the winner so you can assign figures that make sense to the rest of the field. (I hope that is clear enough).

Beyerguy suggested that the Wood figure was very inflated right after the race. I was less sure either way because of Survivalist's performance. However, I think it is at least worth considering the possibility that he has been right all along.



Post Edited (05-11-05 08:40)